Sunday, April 6, 2008

Hillary Clinton's long, strange trip

One year ago, the race for the Democratic nomination for president looked clear cut.

New York Sen. Hillary Clinton sat comfortably atop most polls, and given how popular her husband was among Democrats when he was president, it appeared that all the stars were aligned for her to win the nomination.

All the years of supporting her husband and building her resume in the Senate were about to pay off. She was going to roll to her party's nomination and possibly all the way to the White House.

However, all her aspirations have apparently fallen apart in only one year.

One year doesn't seem like a long time, but in politics, the popularity of a candidate can change as quickly as the wind changes directions.

The emergence of Illinois Sen. Barack Obama has energized many Democrats, and it has forced Clinton to play catch up for most of the last three months.

Her most impressive primary victory was probably her win in New Hampshire where polls had her trailing in the days leading up to the vote. Unfortunately, for her, that is a small state with few delegates.

Obama continues to enjoy a healthy lead in delegates, and some Democratic leaders have publicly called for Clinton to drop out of the race. Vermont Sen. Patrick Leahy, who is a supporter of Obama, recently advised her to quit because it would be in the best interest of the party as it prepares for the November general election.

That is quite a fall in one year.

Additionally, although she did win important states like Florida and Michigan, the results of both of those primaries were nullified because officials there broke party rules by moving their primaries to January.

Clinton continues to push for those results to be counted or that a re-vote take place there, but her efforts appear to be gaining little traction.

Despite the calls for her to drop out of the race, she vows to go forward. The next major primary is in Pennsylvania on April 22.

This would appear to be a state right up her alley because it is an industrial state like Michigan. However, Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey Jr., recently endorsed Obama, which could cut into Clinton's lead in the polls there.

After Pennsylvania, Indiana and North Carolina hold their primaries on May 6. There are a few primaries after that, but if she doesn't win these next three primaries, it won't matter.

In fact, all her efforts right now might be a moot point anyway.

In order to catch Obama, most pundits believe Clinton will have to not only win the remaining primaries by a landslide but also be able to persuade the party's 800 or so "superdelegates" to support her as well.

"Superdelegates" are party members who are allowed to choose any candidate that they want. They are not bound to any candidate.

The "superdelegate" concept is a crock. The whole point of the primary system was to give voters more power when selecting a nominee, but the Democrats took back some of that power with this.

Apparently, Democratic leaders don't totally trust voters when it comes to selecting their nominee.

All I know is if Obama still has his lead when the party's convention takes place this summer, but loses the party's nomination because all the "superdelegates" swing to Clinton, the Democratic Party will implode.

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