Washington Nationals emerging as team to beat in National League

The Nats are kickin' tail right now.

Oh, how things can change in only a few weeks in baseball. Back on May 15, I posted a story about the National League in which I pointed out that there was no clear frontrunner to win the pennant. I focused mostly on the Atlanta Braves, St. Louis Cardinals, and Los Angeles Dodgers because they were leading their divisions and playing good baseball. Despite this, I left the door open because the season was still young and others could emerge. All three of those teams continue to do well, but two other teams have really kicked it into high gear.

The Washington Nationals currently have the best record in baseball (72-44) and are blossoming right before our eyes. After years of struggling since relocating from Montreal, they appear set to be a good team for several years. Through June and July, they played well, and I kept expecting them to fade. However, that has not happened (27-11 record since July 1) primarily because of excellent pitching led by Stephen Strasburg (13-5 record, 2.90 ERA, 166 strikeouts). Much has been made of the fact that the Nationals will likely shut him down once he hits the 160 innings pitched level. He had Tommy John surgery in late 2010 and the team does not want him pitching too much as he builds his elbow strength. He should hit that level in mid-September, which is near the end of the regular season. If the team continues on its current winning pace, it should have no problem securing a playoff berth (though his absence could be problematic after that). Still, the Nats are far from a one-man team. The pitching rotation is solid, and the team can score. The Braves remain hot on their heels (5.5 games behind) so the race for the Eastern Division crown should remain a tense one for weeks to come.

The other team emerging is the Cincinnati Reds. Despite losing their best player Joey Votto for several weeks, the team has been red hot since the all-star break. The Reds have one of the best bullpens in the National League, and if their starters can just get to the seventh inning with a lead, then the team is in the enviable position of having several fine relievers. The bullpen is anchored by closer Aroldis Chapman who brings it at 100 mph most nights. Right now, he has 28 saves and an ERA slightly above one. As Votto prepares to return, the offense will be getting a significant jolt just as we are entering the homestretch of the regular season. The Pirates and Cardinals are chasing the Reds in the Central Division, but it appears to be the Reds to lose at this point. Of course, a lot can still happen, but even with the Reds in control, the Pirates and Cardinals are in the thick of the race for the NL’s two wildcard berths.

In the Western Division, the San Francisco Giants and the Dodgers are slugging it out. The Giants have great starting pitching, while the Dodgers made several moves before the trade deadline to solidify their position. The Arizona Diamondbacks have made some noise about joining the race, but they get hot then fade.

The Nationals and Reds will be fun to watch as the season winds down. Can they hold it together? Maybe, but there is a lot of good baseball being played in the National League right now. At this point, the Nationals look like the strongest team. It is all coming together for them as we head down the homestretch.

Summer's best aspect: Baseball and the Atlanta Braves

In the last couple of weeks, it has been unbearably hot. Though this is a problem that will come and go with the season, there is one aspect of summer that makes this time of year particularly sweet.

Yes, it is baseball season, and the pennant races are about to crank into high gear in Major League Baseball. As I write this, I can already hear the sighs of exasperation from people who do not like the game. They say the season is too long and the games are too boring.

Well, those people are wrong – dead wrong. I have loved the game since I was a boy, and I do not anticipate my heart changing anytime soon.

Major League Baseball survives even though its own caretakers have done their best to kill it in the last couple of decades. Bloated salaries, steroids, labor stoppages, and court cases have dropped a big wet blanket on the joy that goes along with the game.

Still, it perseveres almost in spite of itself. A reason it survives is because it is unlike most sports in several ways. The most important difference is that it allows fans the chance to develop a day-to-day relationship with their favorite teams.

Sports like football play once a week, while others play only two or three times a week. However, most major league teams play at least six games a week. Because of this, the bitter disappointment of last night’s loss can be wiped away within 24 hours. Or the momentum developed through a previous night’s win can be built upon very soon.

This constancy allows fans to become deeply invested in the performance of their teams. A win can make a person’s day. A loss can cause a person to turn the television off and roll over and go to sleep.

In this instant communication age we live in, the daily routine of baseball provides plenty of fodder for discussion. The fortunes of a team seemingly changes many times because of this.

My favorite team, the Atlanta Braves, is an excellent example of this. We are only three months into the season, and the team has already experienced a whole lot of ups and downs.

The team opened the season with four consecutive losses and looked bad doing it. When reading the Internet message boards, a person would have thought the world was coming to an end. People wanted to fire the manager, trade players and send others back down to the minor leagues. People thought this failure was certainly a continuation of 2011’s late-season collapse.

Then, the team got on a hot streak. The Braves won 26 of their next 38 games. The offense put up big numbers, the bullpen was solid, and the starting pitching held its own. When I visited those same message boards, all was great. Talk of winning the World Series was in the air.

Then the team dipped again in May, losing eight games in a row. A lot of the same problems from early April resurfaced and so did a lot of the complaints from the fans. Since then, the Braves have been a wobbling kind of machine that has been inconsistent. This has left fans frustrated or excited depending on the night.

I do not see that type of fan interaction on a daily basis in other sports. Though some might argue how good this is, it does make baseball unique.

July 4 is the unofficial midway point of the season and much excitement is yet to unfold.

My advice is to pick a team and enjoy. Just don’t pick the Yankees.

The National League frontrunner is...

Though I think the early frontrunner in the American League is the Texas Rangers, I am far less certain about the National League.  There are at least three teams that could emerge as the team to beat.  Of course, it is early in the season so other teams could bound to the front, but right now, I am focused on three.  One of those teams is my beloved Atlanta Braves, but since I have bored you all in other postings about them, I will keep my comments on them brief.  The Braves continue to roll early in the season, including a sweep of defending World Series champion St. Louis last weekend.  It was a statement series for the Braves because the Cardinals aced them out of the last playoff spot last year en route to the title.  If the Braves keep hitting, I like their chances.

The Cardinals also deserve a good, hard look. The Cards and the Braves rank one-two in runs scored in the league. Never underestimate an organization that is used to winning.  The Cardinals have the most World Series titles in the National League (11), and intangibles like this give a good team an extra edge.  Also, the Central Division is hardly as competitive as the Eastern Division where the Braves play. Seriously, who else is good in the Central?  Milwaukee won it last year but have bumbled and stumbled so far this year.  The loss of Prince Fielder has left a gaping hole. After them, who else could emerge there?  The Cubs? Pirates? Astros? You get the point.  If the Brewers do not pull it together, the Cardinals could coast to the postseason.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have been red hot in the Western Division.  Strong starting pitching and Matt Kemp have been enough.  Of course, Kemp is dealing with a hamstring injury so a bumpy road could be ahead in the short term.  Again, the Dodgers have a similar, enviable situation like the Cardinals – they play in a relatively easy division.  The San Francisco Giants have good starting pitching but cannot score consistently.  The San Diego Padres stink and are definitely in rebuilding mode.  The Colorado Rockies are fun to watch because the ball is jumping out of Coors Field more than in recent years.  High scoring games are entertaining, but their pitching staff may be in shreds by July.

So, it could be the Dodgers...or the Cardinals...or the Braves...or somebody else.

Atlanta Braves off to an encouraging start

Back on February 3, I wrote about my optimism regarding the Atlanta Braves chances this season. So far, nothing has happened to curb my feelings. At this writing, the Braves are 13-8 and all phases are clicking. The offense leads the National League in runs scored. The starting pitching has been rock solid (except for Jair Jurrjens who has been sent to the minors). The bullpen has also been reliable. I know the Braves played well for most of the season last year before collapsing in September. Still, I like how this team is cut. Since two wild card teams now make the playoffs in addition to the three divisional winners, I really like the team’s chances for post-season play.

I'm feeling optimistic about the Atlanta Braves in 2012

For Atlanta Braves' fans, the conclusion to the 2011 season was a nightmare come true. The team experienced a harmonic convergence of problems in September that resulted in the team being eliminated from post-season play on the final day of the regular season. The hitters could not hit, the starting pitchers could not pitch, and the bullpen collapsed because of overuse. It was a miserable time.

However, the 2012 season is just around the corner, and I am feeling good about the team's chances. While I have a small concern the team might experience a hangover from last year and struggle, I do not think that will happen. The pieces are in place for a good season.

I am encouraged about the offense for several reasons. First, centerfielder Michael Bourn will be with the team for the entire season. He was acquired in a late-season trade last year, and he paid dividends. He gives the team an excellent leadoff hitter who hits for average and has speed. For the entire season in 2011, he hit .296 with 61 steals. Plus, his defense brings stability to the most important position in the outfield.

Next, second baseman Dan Uggla will almost certainly have a better season. Though he wound up leading the team in home runs (36) and RBIs (82), his batting average was miserable until mid-July when he was hitting .175. He rallied to hit .233 for the season, but he left tons of runners on base in the first half of the season. Expect that to change.

Third, Jason Heyward will be much better. After a breakout rookie season in 2010, he struggled with injuries and just about everything else last year. He only hit .227 with 14 home runs and 42 RBIs. Again, expect that to change. He is young and simply has too much talent to be a one season flash in the pan.

Toss in Freddie Freeman, Brian McCann and Chipper Jones, and the offense should be a consistent producer all season. 'Potent' would be too strong a word to use, but I would settle for a 'solid' offense. With the pitching the team has, that should be good enough.

Tim Hudson will anchor the rotation this year (though back surgery will likely have him out until May) and was strong again in 2011 with 16 wins and a 3.22 ERA. Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurjjens pitched well, but injuries curbed their contribution in the second half of the season. Brandon Beachy led the team in strike outs and Mike Minor looks ready to be a permanent member of the staff.

Craig Kimbrel had 46 saves as a rookie, but the entire bullpen showed cracks down the stretch after having been used too much. Could this happen again this year? Between the injury concerns regarding Hanson and Jurrjens and the inexperience of Minor, it could. If nothing else, last year’s problems could help guide the team through the challenges of this year.

The bottom line is I am a realist. The Philadelphia Phillies are the best team in the National League Eastern Division. Barring any type of collapse by them, the Braves are playing for second place. However, the Braves should be in the thick of the playoff race this year.

If not, it is going to be a long spring and summer.