GOP race is a toss up but polls can mislead

As the 2008 presidential race heats up, we should all expect to hear more and more about polls as the weeks pass.

After all, polls are a primary way candidates and the media gauge how successfully a candidate is getting his or her message across to voters.

Though an easy tool to use, I believe polls are misused somewhat when determining the popularity of a candidate. I will elaborate on that a little more in a moment, but there can be no denying the emphasis that is placed on polls.

For those who enjoy tight political races, a recent Associated Press-Ipsos national poll shows the race to win the Republican nomination is quite close.

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani led the poll with 24 percent. He was followed by former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson who had 19 percent and Arizona Sen. John McCain who had 15 percent.

The margin of error in the poll was 4.5 percent so it is possible the race is tighter than the numbers reported.

Or, then again, maybe not.

I have always been uncomfortable with national polls like this one. National polls are meant to reflect the percentage of votes a candidate would receive if the election was held on that day.

However, this is not the way we elect a president or the way Republicans and Democrats select a nominee. When it comes to the race to win a party's nomination, it is a state-by-state process in which the candidates win delegates to their party's convention next summer based on their performance in each state.

These national polls remove the state-by-state element from their findings. These polls are just a sample of voter opinions chosen from people around the nation.

Because of this, general national polls like the AP-Ipsos poll mentioned above cannot always be a reliable measurement of how a candidate stands in the race.

For example, in that poll former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney was a distant fourth with only seven percent. Based on this, it would appear that Romney's campaign is taking on water and is having little success.

However, several polls in Iowa and New Hampshire show Romney is either leading or close to the lead in those states. This is especially important because these states are among the earliest to hold primaries or caucuses next year.

So which is it? Is the Romney campaign hopelessly adrift like the AP-Ipsos poll implies? Or is the campaign poised for great success early in next year's primary season?

If nothing else, successful presidential campaigns are about momentum. If Romney performs well in Iowa and New Hampshire, there is no doubt he will be considered among the top Republican candidates.

From there, it will be anybody's guess as to how he will do.

However, based on the findings of the AP-Ipsos poll, the perception that is being communicated to the general public is that Romney is currently an also-ran in the campaign.

If I were a Romney campaign representative, I would be hopping mad about how much airplay this poll got. Perception is reality, and if the perception becomes that Romney has no chance, then the leads he has in Iowa and New Hampshire could melt away.

This is just one example of how powerful poll results can be. We are a results-driven society, and in a long political campaign, it is sometimes difficult to measure the results of all the activity we see. Polls can be a good resource to measure results, but we must be careful how we use them.

America is a sports crazy nation so perhaps polls are so popular because it acts as a scoreboard. We love frontrunners, but at the same time, we cheer for the underdog. Polls definitely play a role in identifying who those folks are.

Despite the dangers of misusing polls, don't expect to see a decrease in them anytime soon. They are a staple of the media's political coverage, and campaigns can't seem to make a major decision without consulting them.

In a way, politicians have become slaves to polls. They are so afraid of making decisions that could hurt their numbers that they become tentative.

I don't know about anyone else, but the last trait that I want in a president is for him (or her) to be tentative.

Boldness is necessary in our leaders.

Barack Obama's secret weapon: Oprah

Successfully manipulating the media is one of the primary challenges presidential candidates face when marketing themselves to the public.

After all, how a candidate is presented is almost as important as what he or she has to say these days. If candidates come across in an unappealing way in the media, the struggle they face is much more difficult than those who handle themselves well.

A famous example of this took place during the 1960 presidential race between John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon. The race was very close, but a likely turning point occurred during their televised debates.

Kennedy came across as charming and attractive, while Nixon looked sweaty and awkward. Advantage: Kennedy.

Recently, former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson announced his candidacy for president by appearing on "The Tonight Show with Jay Leno." He was glib and relaxed as he commented on his reasons for running.

He knew Leno did not have the skills to grill him from a political standpoint, and as an actor, he knew how to exploit a friendly situation to get maximum exposure.

True, he did receive criticism for skipping a Republican debate to appear on Leno's show, but Thompson obviously knew how important it was to make his announcement in a way that would have the most impact.

As he said, it is a lot more difficult to get on Leno's show than to appear in a political debate. His appearance gave his campaign a successful bounce, and he seems off to a good start.

Another candidate successfully exploiting the media is Democratic Sen. Barack Obama.

Like several candidates in the race, he seems comfortable in front of cameras and is able to present himself in a pleasant way.

He communicates well even though some critics have dismissed him as just another empty suit.

However, as the race unfolds, Obama does have an ace up his sleeve when it comes to having allies in the media.

The most powerful person on television is talk show host Oprah Winfrey. She has publicly announced her endorsement of Obama and has already been helping his campaign.

While many dismiss the impact of endorsements, the political world will be making a big mistake if it underestimates the possible impact Winfrey can have on Obama's candidacy.

Oprah is easily the most influential television personality when it comes to prodding an audience into action.

When she endorses a book, her audience buys them in such quantity that the books zoom up the best seller's list. Her monthly magazine (titled "O") features a cover photo of her each month instead of other celebrities because she understands how powerful she is as a commodity.

Her following is so loyal that her viewers have been called the "Church of Oprah."

Since her endorsement of Obama is the first time she has endorsed a candidate, the real intrigue is whether her influence will transfer into the political arena.

For Obama, the endorsement certainly couldn't hurt. He currently trails Democratic frontrunner Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton by double digits in most polls.

With Oprah's endorsement, she may help him compete with Clinton for women's votes since they make up her core audience.

Of course, not all of her viewers are Democrats, and I doubt that dedicated Republicans who watch her show will jump parties just because Oprah tells them to.

Still, I don't think it is much of a stretch to believe that she will have a lot of influence with viewers who are currently undecided on who to vote for or those who don't usually vote but will now consider Obama just because she has endorsed him.

In the long run, it remains to be seen how much of an impact this endorsement will have, but it never hurts to have somebody with a golden touch in your corner.

If nothing else, Oprah will be a valuable resource for fundraising as she taps her friends in the media and in Hollywood on Obama's behalf. She recently hosted a fundraiser at her California estate, and there will likely be more of those in the coming months.

To paraphrase an old saying, it never hurts to have friends in high places.

In Oprah Winfrey, Barack Obama has just that.