Braves need to stay healthy, reduce strikeouts to win divisional title

Be more consistent.

The Atlanta Braves have led the National League Eastern Division from day one this season, but all may not be as good as it seems.  The Braves were hot in April, opening the season with a 12-1 record.  This has been good enough to put them in first place, but the going has not always been easy.

Since mid-April, the team has only been slightly above the .500 mark.  The primary reasons for this inconsistency have been injuries and an up-and-down offense.  The Braves have also benefitted from the woes of the Washington Nationals.  The Nationals were the consensus pick to win the division but have sputtered around the .500 mark all season.  However, the Nationals have too much talent to keep floundering like that, meaning the Braves must pick up the pace to win the division.

Injuries have hurt the Braves a lot.  First baseman Freddie Freeman, catcher Brian McCann, and right fielder Jason Heyward have all spent time on the disabled list.  Plus, right before the all-star break, the entire starting outfield was injured and missed time.  Though more focus has been on the injuries the Nationals have experienced, the Braves have been right there with them when it comes to important players missing time.  In addition, the team received two potentially devastating injuries when relievers Jonny Venters and Eric O’Flarety went down with season-ending elbow injuries.  The bullpen has remained a strength (leading the National League in ERA for a large portion of the season), but one has to wonder if any wear and tear will emerge as the season progresses.

As for the offense, the team has lived and died by the long ball and have repeatedly demonstrated the inability to manufacture runs when the home runs are not happening.  Simple techniques like hitting behind the runner and executing sacrifice bunts have been a struggle.  Because of this, too many dry spells have doomed the team at times.

The most consistent hitters have been Freeman and third baseman Chris Johnson.  Both have hit above .300 for most of the season while McCann surged right before the all-star break.  That surge is likely why he was selected to the N.L. all-star team as a late injury replacement.

That’s the good news.  There has been plenty of bad news.  B.J. Upton has been a bust so far, hitting below .180 for most of the season.  Second baseman Dan Uggla once again has struggled.  His first two seasons with the team ended with a batting average in the .220 to .230 range, but this year he has not been able to even do that.  He has gotten his average above .200 lately, but when he does not hit home runs, he provides little of substance to the offense.

Also, Justin Upton and Jason Heyward have been streaky.  Upton began the season with a bang, hitting 12 home runs in April, but since then, he has wavered.  Heyward was sidelined early with an appendectomy and really did not start hitting consistently until June.  During a 36-game stretch in June and July he hit .280.

As the season unfolds, the Braves biggest helper could be the schedule.  In an unusual occurrence, the team does not have anymore long road trips to the west coast.  As a team in the east, this is especially significant as the grind of the season wears on.  For the rest of the season, the furthest west the team will go is St. Louis.

The bottom line is the division is there for the taking, and it likely will be a two-team race.  The Phillies could still be a player, but the potential for that may be how they handle the trade deadline at the end of the month.  If the Phillies are sellers, they will likely not be a big factor down the stretch, leaving just the Braves and Nationals.

So, the Braves need to pick up the pace.  If the team can avoid more critical injuries and can consistently put the ball in play, a divisional championship could be the result.

My excitement highest for start of Braves season since 1974

I know it is a stretch to say this is the most excited I have been for the start of an Atlanta Braves season since 1974, but I feel that way.

As a boy back then, Hank Aaron was on the verge of passing Babe Ruth to become the home run king. I remember the disappointment I felt when the 1973 season ended and 'The Hammer' was stuck at 713. It was a long winter indeed, but fortunately, we did not have to wait long for Aaron to get the deed done when the 1974 season started.

He pasted a homer off Cincinnati's Jack Billingham on April 4 to tie the Babe at 714, and then, of course, he took the Dodgers' Al Downing deep on April 8 to break the record. It was a remarkable accomplishment, but unfortunately for fans, it was only a brief oasis as the Braves struggled mightily from then until the ‘90s. Only the Western Division title in 1982 brought relief.

The Braves have had tons of success in the last twenty years or so, but I cannot recall the sense of anticipation I am feeling since back in 1974.  Maybe I should plead guilty to being a fan who caught a bad case of complacency as the team won 14 consecutive divisional titles. Sustained excellence can take the edge off even the most devoted fans.

The Braves won 94 games last year and look locked to produce a strong season. Seriously, what is not to like?

The outfield has the potential to be the best defensive outfield in the National League. Jason Heyward won his first Gold Glove award last year, and Justin and B.J. Upton both have range (along with Heyward) that will make it difficult for batters to find the outfield gaps.

First baseman Freddie Freeman is emerging as one of the better players at his position. Despite seeing his batting average drop to .259 last year, his swing is too sweet to remain that low. A batting line-up including Freeman, Heyward, and the Upton brothers is formidable, and if this group does not deliver a combined 100 home runs, it will have to be considered a major disappointment.

At third base, the retirement of Chipper Jones leaves a void so it only seems logical that a platoon would be needed to plug it. Both Juan Francisco and Chris Johnson have power and should bring stability with Johnson chipping in at first base on occasion as needed. A combined 20 home runs is not out of the question for this platoon and their free-swinging ways should produce a nice breeze on sultry nights at Turner Field.

Of course, there are concerns. As much upside as shortstop Andrelton Simmons has, it remains to be seen what he can do during a 162-game stretch especially if he hits lead-off.  Also, second baseman Dan Uggla’s power followed his batting average south last year as he struggled with 19 home runs. At this point, anything gotten from Uggla will have to be considered a bonus and expectations for him should be cautious.

As for the pitching, the Braves have arguably the best bullpen in baseball, and if the offense can just get them the lead by the sixth inning, they will win a lot more than they lose. Craig Kimbrel had 88 saves in the last two seasons, and he will be set up by stalwarts Eric O’Flaherty, Jonny Venters (who is currently experiencing elbow problems), and Jordan Walden.

As for the starters, can Kris Medlen continue his hot streak (10-1, 1.57 ERA last year)? Probably not to the degree from last year, but he appears capable of big things. Though aging, Tim Hudson still looks dependable and capable of delivering 15 wins.  Underrated Paul Maholm is dependable, and if Mike Minor can pitch for the entire season like he did in last year’s second half, he should be on everybody’s fantasy team.

So, the excitement is there. Can the Braves deliver on such promise? Time will tell.