High unemployment is issue that could doom Democrats next month

We are only a few weeks away from next month's election, and both Democrats and Republicans are already sweating what should be an exciting sprint to the finish line.

There is a lot at stake. For President Barack Obama, he has had the luxury of having both the U.S. House and Senate controlled by Democratic majorities for the first two years of his presidency.

Because of this, he has been able to pass healthcare reform and other legislation that he promised to voters when he ran for president in 2008. Republicans, on the other hand, have had to sit on their hands and brood while watching this happen.

However, a few factors have made Democrats vulnerable in the election. Most significantly, the economy remains sluggish, and unemployment is still high.

Though many experts have stated the recession ended last year, it has been difficult to convince the skeptical public of that. Unemployment remains unacceptably high. The national unemployment rate for September was 9.6 percent, and the rate remains above 10 percent in several states.

Many economists have pointed out that unemployment usually is a lagging indicator when it comes to determining our economic health.

This makes sense. Typically, businesses want to be absolutely certain that the economy is strengthening before taking on the considerable cost of hiring more people. Because of this, unemployment rates can remain high even after a recession has ended.

The real frustration that a lot of the public is feeling is that the unemployment rate has remained at an extraordinarily high level for a prolonged time.

We all got used to unemployment levels down around five percent before the economy tanked. Like many things before the bubble burst, we are not going to see unemployment levels that low for a long time.

With this frustration building, Democrats find themselves facing an election with a whole lot of angry voters.

All voters can see at this point is the figure of 9.6 percent. They have no patience for explanations of how there have been improvements when it comes to hiring in the private sector.

For example, 64,000 jobs in the private sector were added in September. Though that amount should be described as ‘tepid,’ it is the ninth consecutive month in which the private sector added jobs.

However, for unemployment these days, there is a step back for every step forward. Though the private sector added jobs, the public sector lost 159,000 jobs in September. Most of these losses were cuts by local and state governments trying to balance their budgets and temporary U.S. census workers getting laid off.

On top of this, the unemployment rate does not take into consideration those who are 'under-employed.' Under-employed people are those who have had to take jobs of less than 40 hours.

In many cases, this is done because a person is running out of unemployment benefits and has to grab low-paying, part-time jobs just to keep some money coming in. Estimates vary, but some experts put the under-employment rate at 16 to 17 percent.

Additionally, there are people who have run out of unemployment benefits and have simply given up looking for a job. They slip through the cracks of the unemployment rate as well.

The bottom line is incumbents have a lot of explaining to do, and it will be interesting to see just how mad voters are next month.

Frankly, at this point, I do not have a lot of confidence in either the Democrats or Republicans. Their main focus seems to be maintaining power instead of working together.

How about a third party?

I am starting to warm to the idea.

Will there be more jobs in 2010?

Now that healthcare reform has passed, I guess our lawmakers will be looking to ease back into a more relaxed legislative pace.

After all, they worked well into the holidays to pass this legislation, and depending on which side a person takes on the issue, either a historic success took place or the country is heading toward a fiscal nightmare in a few years.

Given the size of our current national debt, I would say that the fiscal nightmare is already here, but that is a topic for another time. At this point, my big concern is the lingering high unemployment rate.

In Tennessee and nationwide, the rate is around 10 percent. Unfortunately, even if the rate does begin to dip, I fear it will not dip quickly. We'll get a better feel for that in the next couple of months as either our economy will begin to add jobs or it won't.

As high unemployment rates continue to stay steady, it has been interesting to observe how its presence has merged into our pop culture. The best example of this is the recent George Clooney film Up in the Air.

It is an excellent film in which Clooney plays a man who fires people for a living. Referred to as a 'termination facilitator,' he works for a firm that contracts with companies to handle the dirty work of telling people they are being let go.

The film does a vivid job of recreating the firing experience people go through, and Clooney's character handles his job with charm and charisma. Of course, these are not necessarily personality traits one thinks of when it comes to people handling firings.

Though the idea of a 'termination facilitator' may seem extreme, there are lots of examples of how people are let go in impersonal ways. Firing people via teleconference or conference calls are pretty common place these days.

These impersonal approaches are part of what is fueling anger and resentment toward the corporate world. People who have loyally worked for companies for decades have seen it go out the window in the matter of a brief meeting. Up in the Air is able to present this in a way that is both creative and troubling.

Of course, this is just a movie, and movies are entertainment. Still, if this is what is being served up for entertainment, I think it says a lot about the mood of the country. However, like I said, it is an excellent film.

As we move forward in the coming months, it will be interesting to note if we see other prominent examples of this type of entertainment. After all, the work place is a ripe place when delivering social commentary and can be easily lampooned (as anyone who has ever watched The Office can attest).

Still, I hope this entertainment is not trivializing the pain that a lot of people continue to go through. For all the news that the economy may be improving, the unemployed are the ones who experience this improvement last.

As an election issue, this could become a big problem for the Democrats heading into the 2010 mid-term races. It remains to be seen how healthcare reform will impact those running for re-election. If this reform does not go over well with voters, then coupling this with a high unemployment rate could provide Republicans with a powerful one-two punch.

This year should be a tasty political year.

Where are the jobs?

Recently, many economic experts have been saying that the worst of the recession is behind us. If the recession is not already over, then it is in its final stages, which will likely lead to a brighter 2010.

If this is true, it is definitely good news. It has been a turbulent last year or so. The banking industry, the auto industry, our 401Ks, and a whole lot of other areas have taken it on the chin.

Everybody has suffered in some way it seems like. However, there is one missing piece to the puzzle. If the economy is recovering, where are the jobs?

Last week, it was announced that our national unemployment rate for August was 9.7 percent. This was a jump of three-tenths of a percent, and it was higher than expected. Most economists were expecting an increase of only one-tenth of a percent.

August's rate was a 26-year high, and many experts have said this rate will continue to grow.

"It's good to see the rate of job losses slow down," said Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at IHS Insight in a recent interview with the Associated Press. But "we're still on track to hit 10 percent (unemployment) before we are done."

If unemployment is going to rise for the foreseeable future, it is hard to get excited about the talk of economic recovery.

It must be noted at this point that it is understood that unemployment is a lagging indicator when it comes to determining whether our economy is coming out of a recession. After all, employers have to be confident things are getting better before starting to hire people.

Although this may be the case, how can we be more optimistic about the economy when the amount of unemployed people stands at 15 million and continues to grow?

For example, the new unemployment rate of 9.7 percent does not take into consideration the number of people who have settled for part-time jobs or those who have given up looking for a job altogether. Depending on the source a person goes by, the 'underemployment' rate in the country may actually be as high as 16.8 percent.

Additionally, between now and the end of the year, it is believed that 1.3 million unemployed people will lose benefits. This means they will have exhausted all the benefits available to them. They will be left with nothing.

At this point, I believe it is appropriate to start holding the Obama administration more responsible for what we are seeing. In the president's defense, he inherited a mess. I wrote in this column previously that we did not get into this mess overnight, and it would take time for things to improve.

Well, the time for accountability has arrived. In a week, President Obama will reach the nine-month anniversary mark of his administration. This means his term will be about 20 percent complete.

He is one-fifth of the way through his term, and despite giving his policies ample time to impact the economy, it is apparent unemployment will continue to worsen.

In recent weeks, we have seen repeated examples of citizens holding politicians responsible for policies that are being presented. If we are genuinely in a season of accountability, then more accountability has to be applied regarding unemployment.

Finding a job and providing for one's family is one of the most fundamental needs of a person. If the government unsuccessfully oversees a marketplace and the result is a loss of jobs over a long period of time, then there is something wrong in the approach.