Football's Super Bowl occurred today, but a political version of that will take place on Tuesday.
On Tuesday, more than 20 states will hold primaries and just a couple of months ago, it was believed that the results would play a big role in determining the frontrunner for the Democratic and Republican nominations.
However, this does not appear to be the case. The races in both parties are still wide open, and unless something unexpected happens on Tuesday, it will be that way as the campaign moves forward.
Illinois Sen. Barack Obama enjoyed an impressive win in South Carolina and has a lot of momentum. However, anybody who doubts the power of the Clinton political machine should think twice.
If nothing else, the Clinton family has shown they are relentless campaigners who have experienced many highs and lows over the years.
On the Republican side, it is a three-horse race. Arizona Sen. John McCain, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, and to a lesser extent former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee lead the way.
The most embarrassed Republican at this point has to be former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani. He skipped the early contests to focus on the Florida primary last Tuesday and failed miserably.
He placed a distant third, and his entire campaign strategy has to be considered one of the dumbest in recent years. It doesn't quite rank as high as when Walter Mondale pledged to raise taxes as the Democratic nominee in the 1984 election.
Of course, Mondale knew he was likely to get steamrolled by incumbent Ronald Reagan anyway, so it's understandable that he would try a risky campaign technique. Still, his approach was a stinker.
As for Tuesday's primary here in Tennessee, it is a must win for both Obama and Clinton. Both candidates have begun paying more attention to the state, but it is distressing that they are only focusing on the large metropolitan areas.
I guess that can be forgiven because so many states are up for grabs, but still it's a shame that they won't lavish attention on Tennessee voters like they did in New Hampshire and Iowa.
As for the Republicans, the race here in our state only became more interesting a few days ago. Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson would have been a shoe in, but he dropped out of the race after a poor showing in South Carolina.
Now, candidates are taking a greater interest in the state.
So, how should we approach Tuesday?
First, please go vote. I know I am stating the obvious but since tons of eligible voters don't do this, I felt it was worth stating. However, reader, since you have gotten this far into this column, I feel confident you have a lot of interest in elections and will do the right thing.
Of course, if you haven't registered to vote, then you can't vote in the primary. In this case, make sure to register so that you can vote in the general election in November.
Second, do a lot of personal research. Voters rely way too much on television and radio commercials when it comes to forming an opinion about a candidate. Many commercials are manipulative and don't tell the whole story. This is especially true when it comes to attack ads about another candidate.
Technology has made it easer than ever to find information regarding a candidate. I know it may be too close to our primary to do a lot of research, but the information is out there if a person is willing to do a little digging. Don't be lazy.
Last, don't pay attention to polls. Polls may help campaigns gauge voter sentiment, but the media tends to drown us with them. Polls subconsciously affect us when making a decision.
After all, how many times have you not voted for a candidate simply because you don't believe he has a chance to win? Paying too much attention to polls often drives that type of thinking.
Polls often aren't reliable. In this election, some polls showed that Barack Obama would beat Hillary Clinton by 10 percent in New Hampshire only days before voters went to cast their ballot, but she beat him.
Anything can still happen during this election.
The one question you must ask yourself is whether you are going to sit on the sidelines or get off the couch and participate. You can do that Tuesday.
Showing posts with label Mike Huckabee. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mike Huckabee. Show all posts
Sunday, February 3, 2008
Sunday, January 27, 2008
The GOP race remains wide open
We are about one month into the presidential primary season, and the Republicans are no closer to selecting a clear cut frontrunner for their nomination than when the process began.
That isn't a bad thing. I've written before that the race for the presidency should be a marathon and not a sprint.
Both Democrats and Republicans have tried their best to condense the election process by frontloading the primary season. After all, more than 20 states will hold primaries on February 5 (including Tennessee).
I believe that is bad because voters need to see candidates exposed to the pressures of a campaign as much as possible. If nominees are established quickly, then they can coast their way to November.
However, that is not likely in either party this year, and that is especially so on the Republican side.
Watching the competition between the candidates has been exciting, and the results so far show us the race has a long way to go.
Arizona Sen. John McCain won New Hampshire and South Carolina. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney won Michigan and Nevada. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee won Iowa and placed a close second in South Carolina.
Nobody has been able to pull ahead of the pack.
The campaign has been aggressive, and because it has been so tight, the candidates have had to be on their toes.
Additionally, the presence of former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani will finally be felt when the Florida primary is held Tuesday.
Guiliani's strategy has been risky. He has virtually ignored the early primaries and caucuses, and he got trounced in each of those states.
He is hoping a strong showing in Florida will springboard him to big wins on Super Tuesday on February 5.
Though it could work for him, I hate this strategy. Frankly, I believe it is an arrogant approach.
The other candidates have sweated blood while fighting it out in the other states, while America's Mayor has chosen to set his own agenda at the expense of the American people.
Voters need to see Giuliani in the campaign thunderdome to determine whether he is presidential material. He is blowing that opportunity by believing he can breeze on to the scene late and expect everybody to accommodate him.
My prediction is that he is waiting too late and won't be able to generate momentum. Timing is essential in politics, and Giuliani is proving that he doesn't understand that.
Ask former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson about that. Last year, the political scene was abuzz about him possibly entering the race.
However, he waited and waited and waited before making his announcement, and he lost his momentum.
By the time he announced his candidacy on The Tonight Show, the moment had passed him. He seemed like yesterday's news even though his campaign was only beginning.
Though the party's convention is still months away, one can't help but speculate what it will be like if the situation remains as it is. We could be looking at the first contested GOP convention in decades.
In the last couple of decades, both the Democratic and Republican conventions have become more and more irrelevant. Nothing of real substance happened.
Party nominees have been selected in recent years well before the convention, so this event has been watered down to a well-choreographed public relations event.
There was some drama at the GOP convention in 1976 when Ronald Reagan strongly challenged then-president Gerald Ford, but other than that, these events have been fairly quiet.
Perhaps the protests that occurred at the disastrous 1968 Democratic convention caused officials in both parties to more tightly control these events. The violence at that convention occurred when protests against the Vietnam War were at their most passionate.
The result was the Democrats came off looking like a party that couldn't run an orderly convention much less run the country. That event likely played a significant role in getting Richard Nixon elected.
The bottom line is the Republican race will have a lot more drama as the weeks unfold.
That may not make the leaders of the party happy, but it is good for voters.
And that should be what is important, right?
That isn't a bad thing. I've written before that the race for the presidency should be a marathon and not a sprint.
Both Democrats and Republicans have tried their best to condense the election process by frontloading the primary season. After all, more than 20 states will hold primaries on February 5 (including Tennessee).
I believe that is bad because voters need to see candidates exposed to the pressures of a campaign as much as possible. If nominees are established quickly, then they can coast their way to November.
However, that is not likely in either party this year, and that is especially so on the Republican side.
Watching the competition between the candidates has been exciting, and the results so far show us the race has a long way to go.
Arizona Sen. John McCain won New Hampshire and South Carolina. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney won Michigan and Nevada. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee won Iowa and placed a close second in South Carolina.
Nobody has been able to pull ahead of the pack.
The campaign has been aggressive, and because it has been so tight, the candidates have had to be on their toes.
Additionally, the presence of former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani will finally be felt when the Florida primary is held Tuesday.
Guiliani's strategy has been risky. He has virtually ignored the early primaries and caucuses, and he got trounced in each of those states.
He is hoping a strong showing in Florida will springboard him to big wins on Super Tuesday on February 5.
Though it could work for him, I hate this strategy. Frankly, I believe it is an arrogant approach.
The other candidates have sweated blood while fighting it out in the other states, while America's Mayor has chosen to set his own agenda at the expense of the American people.
Voters need to see Giuliani in the campaign thunderdome to determine whether he is presidential material. He is blowing that opportunity by believing he can breeze on to the scene late and expect everybody to accommodate him.
My prediction is that he is waiting too late and won't be able to generate momentum. Timing is essential in politics, and Giuliani is proving that he doesn't understand that.
Ask former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson about that. Last year, the political scene was abuzz about him possibly entering the race.
However, he waited and waited and waited before making his announcement, and he lost his momentum.
By the time he announced his candidacy on The Tonight Show, the moment had passed him. He seemed like yesterday's news even though his campaign was only beginning.
Though the party's convention is still months away, one can't help but speculate what it will be like if the situation remains as it is. We could be looking at the first contested GOP convention in decades.
In the last couple of decades, both the Democratic and Republican conventions have become more and more irrelevant. Nothing of real substance happened.
Party nominees have been selected in recent years well before the convention, so this event has been watered down to a well-choreographed public relations event.
There was some drama at the GOP convention in 1976 when Ronald Reagan strongly challenged then-president Gerald Ford, but other than that, these events have been fairly quiet.
Perhaps the protests that occurred at the disastrous 1968 Democratic convention caused officials in both parties to more tightly control these events. The violence at that convention occurred when protests against the Vietnam War were at their most passionate.
The result was the Democrats came off looking like a party that couldn't run an orderly convention much less run the country. That event likely played a significant role in getting Richard Nixon elected.
The bottom line is the Republican race will have a lot more drama as the weeks unfold.
That may not make the leaders of the party happy, but it is good for voters.
And that should be what is important, right?
Thursday, January 3, 2008
Iowa caucuses show how little the mainstream media understands politics
The Iowa caucuses have shown us just how unpredictable politics can be, as well as how little the media knows about politics.
At the start of the presidential campaign back in early 2007, there was lots of coverage that stated former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani was the obvious frontrunner for the Republicans. Those same pundits said New York Sen. Hillary Clinton was the clear frontrunner for the Democrats.
The voters of Iowa have shown just how pointless it can be to anoint leaders months before an actual election takes place. Giuliani didn't come close to winning Iowa as former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney were the choices of Republican voters there.
As for Clinton, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards made her life miserable and showed the race for the Democratic nomination is not a one-horse race.
So, what's the point here? Don't let the media be too big of an influence on how you will vote.
Study the candidates. Take control of your vote.
And don't be sheep that need to be led around by the nose.
At the start of the presidential campaign back in early 2007, there was lots of coverage that stated former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani was the obvious frontrunner for the Republicans. Those same pundits said New York Sen. Hillary Clinton was the clear frontrunner for the Democrats.
The voters of Iowa have shown just how pointless it can be to anoint leaders months before an actual election takes place. Giuliani didn't come close to winning Iowa as former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney were the choices of Republican voters there.
As for Clinton, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards made her life miserable and showed the race for the Democratic nomination is not a one-horse race.
So, what's the point here? Don't let the media be too big of an influence on how you will vote.
Study the candidates. Take control of your vote.
And don't be sheep that need to be led around by the nose.
Sunday, December 30, 2007
Welcome to the big time Mr. Huckabee
When the calendar turns to 2008 in a few days, the race to elect our next president will intensify.
On Jan. 3, Iowa will hold its caucuses, and the candidates who do well there will pick up substantial momentum as they head into primaries in the coming weeks.
There will be little margin for error because this is the most front loaded primary season there has ever been. For example, more than 20 states will hold their primaries on Feb. 5 (including Tennessee).
To this point, the most interesting aspect of the race has been watching the rising and falling of candidates in the polls.
There is way too much emphasis put on polls during an election season, especially the general national polls that the mainstream media report the most. National polls really don't mean much because we don't elect a president (or a nominee for the two major parties) through a general national vote.
To use polls more effectively, it is important to look at the race on a state by state basis.
In reviewing the polls in Iowa in the last several weeks, the most interesting story has been the emergence of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee as a major player.
For months, he languished in the single digits of most polls as he methodically got his face in front of the voters in that state. That has changed in the last several weeks as he has surged toward the top of most polls taken there.
When this happened, everything changed for his campaign. More money flowed in, the major television networks became more interested in putting him on their shows, and voters began listening a little more closely to what he had to say.
However, there was one specific moment when it became apparent that Huckabee had truly arrived as a candidate with a chance to win. This occurred when all the other Republican candidates took aim at him and began to criticize him.
After all, candidates don't typically start ripping someone until they view him as a threat. Until a few weeks ago, Republicans treated Huckabee as nothing more than a pesky fly that needed to be swatted away every now and then.
Now, folks are coming after him with a big can of Raid.
For example, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney attacked his record on taxes while he was Arkansas governor and implied that he was soft on crime and immigration.
Independent groups attacked him before Christmas for a television commercial he made that invoked the birth of Christ.
I guess this is an example of how politics is different than most other aspects of life.
In most areas of life, the stature of a person is often confirmed by how good his reputation is and the good comments people make about him.
However, in a political campaign, we can measure how popular a candidate is by all the negative things that are said about him. For Huckabee, he was just another likeable guy until he got popular then the big guns got unloaded on him.
For a long time, I didn't understand why presidential candidates put themselves through the meat grinder of negativity that they have to go through to win that office. It seemed like too big a sacrifice to me.
Finally, it dawned on me that all this negativity was a stamp of approval that a candidate had arrived as a genuine political force. After all, the measure of a candidate can many times be made by understanding who his critics are and how they criticize him.
As for Huckabee, please don't misinterpret this posting as an endorsement of him in any way. I don't publicly support candidates anymore. I don't put signs in my yard telling my neighbors who to vote for. I don't contribute money to campaigns. I only advocate that people study the candidates so they can make an informed vote.
It's just that watching the rise of Huckabee recently has been fascinating. In most campaigns, an unknown comes from out of the pack to create drama for a little while.
Will Huckabee be able to sustain his momentum? We'll find out starting Jan. 3.
On Jan. 3, Iowa will hold its caucuses, and the candidates who do well there will pick up substantial momentum as they head into primaries in the coming weeks.
There will be little margin for error because this is the most front loaded primary season there has ever been. For example, more than 20 states will hold their primaries on Feb. 5 (including Tennessee).
To this point, the most interesting aspect of the race has been watching the rising and falling of candidates in the polls.
There is way too much emphasis put on polls during an election season, especially the general national polls that the mainstream media report the most. National polls really don't mean much because we don't elect a president (or a nominee for the two major parties) through a general national vote.
To use polls more effectively, it is important to look at the race on a state by state basis.
In reviewing the polls in Iowa in the last several weeks, the most interesting story has been the emergence of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee as a major player.
For months, he languished in the single digits of most polls as he methodically got his face in front of the voters in that state. That has changed in the last several weeks as he has surged toward the top of most polls taken there.
When this happened, everything changed for his campaign. More money flowed in, the major television networks became more interested in putting him on their shows, and voters began listening a little more closely to what he had to say.
However, there was one specific moment when it became apparent that Huckabee had truly arrived as a candidate with a chance to win. This occurred when all the other Republican candidates took aim at him and began to criticize him.
After all, candidates don't typically start ripping someone until they view him as a threat. Until a few weeks ago, Republicans treated Huckabee as nothing more than a pesky fly that needed to be swatted away every now and then.
Now, folks are coming after him with a big can of Raid.
For example, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney attacked his record on taxes while he was Arkansas governor and implied that he was soft on crime and immigration.
Independent groups attacked him before Christmas for a television commercial he made that invoked the birth of Christ.
I guess this is an example of how politics is different than most other aspects of life.
In most areas of life, the stature of a person is often confirmed by how good his reputation is and the good comments people make about him.
However, in a political campaign, we can measure how popular a candidate is by all the negative things that are said about him. For Huckabee, he was just another likeable guy until he got popular then the big guns got unloaded on him.
For a long time, I didn't understand why presidential candidates put themselves through the meat grinder of negativity that they have to go through to win that office. It seemed like too big a sacrifice to me.
Finally, it dawned on me that all this negativity was a stamp of approval that a candidate had arrived as a genuine political force. After all, the measure of a candidate can many times be made by understanding who his critics are and how they criticize him.
As for Huckabee, please don't misinterpret this posting as an endorsement of him in any way. I don't publicly support candidates anymore. I don't put signs in my yard telling my neighbors who to vote for. I don't contribute money to campaigns. I only advocate that people study the candidates so they can make an informed vote.
It's just that watching the rise of Huckabee recently has been fascinating. In most campaigns, an unknown comes from out of the pack to create drama for a little while.
Will Huckabee be able to sustain his momentum? We'll find out starting Jan. 3.
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