Prediction: MTSU will upset Mississippi State in football on Oct. 17

For college football fans, a fun way to kill time during the heat of the summer is to look at the upcoming schedules of teams and try to pick upsets. An upset I see coming is when the SEC's Mississippi State Bulldogs travel to Murfreesboro to play the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders on October 17.

First of all, kudos to the Blue Raiders schedule maker for continuing to make progress when it comes to getting teams from big name conferences to visit Murfreesboro. Home field advantage means a lot as we saw when the Blue Raiders knocked off Maryland from the ACC last year.

MTSU has a ton of experience returning from last year's 5-7 team, including 10 starters on offense. True, the only non-starter returning is quarterback Dwight Dasher, but he has the supporting cast to put points on the board.

Mississippi State was one of several SEC teams that had big problems scoring last year. Former Florida assistant Dan Mullen has been brought in as new head coach. He will be installing Florida's spread offense, but as we have seen, it is difficult to be successful in that scheme if a team does not have the talent to run it. Even Urban Meyer struggled when implementing it at Florida in his first year. Therefore, expect the Bulldogs to have problems scoring again this year.

While the Bulldogs defense will be good this year, the Blue Raiders should be able to squeeze out enough points to win.

Tennessee, Mississippi State mirror each other in important ways

A casual glance around the Southeastern Conference reveals there are several teams with a lot in common. More and more teams have developed good defenses but been saddled with bad offenses.

Of course, Tennessee leads the way in this department. After the Vols' one rushing yard effort against Georgia, they are really struggling and putting more and more pressure on the defense. This week's opponent Mississippi State has also had trouble scoring consistently though running back Anthony Dixon has helped the Bulldogs develop a fairly dependable running game.

Kentucky and Auburn have also floundered consistently on offense. Even after Tommy Tuberville fired offensive coordinator Tony Franklin, the Tigers lost to Arkansas at home, which has to be the biggest upset of the conference season so far. Also, Vanderbilt is in danger of falling into this category as quarterbacks Mackenzi Adams and Chris Nickson both struggle.

As for this week's Tennessee/Mississippi State match up, if either team can score 20 points, I believe they will win. The Vols have only scored 45 points in their last four games, while the Bulldogs' offense showed signs of life against Vanderbilt and LSU in their last two games.

However, the Vols are playing at home. Expect this to be a physical game much like last year's game in Starkville. Tennessee won down there last year, and I believe they will get it done Saturday.

The pick: Tennessee 20 Mississippi State 17

Other SEC picks: Georgia over Vanderbilt, LSU over South Carolina, Kentucky over Arkansas, Alabama over Ole Miss

Last week: 2-3 (.400), Overall: 40-13 (.757)

Look for Auburn to win the SEC West this year

The Southeastern Conference's Western Division will be a division of plateaus this year.

The top two teams are clearly defending national champion LSU and Auburn. Alabama and Mississippi State should slug it out for third place, while Ole Miss and Arkansas will bring up the rear.

How will it all shake out? Let's take a look.

1. Auburn Tigers – After much consideration, I'm giving Auburn the nod to win the division. While mystery still remains around its spread offense, the defense should remain formidable enough to win games early in the season while the offense works out the kinks. The Tigers toughest conference games are at home (LSU and Tennessee), and their toughest conference road contest will be at Alabama. However, the Tigers are definitely in Bama's head and should continue their recent mastery of them. Also, kudos to Auburn for scheduling one of the most interesting non-conference games of the year. They will visit West Virginia on October 23.

2. LSU Tigers – It's true that LSU has tons of talent, but the Tigers have a gaping hole at quarterback. Ryan Perrilloux was dismissed from the team leaving them with little experience at the position. Also, while the Tigers had a great season last year, they also caught a lot of breaks (the most notable being when they threw a touchdown pass on the last play of the Auburn game when a short field goal was all that was needed). The breaks have a way of evening out, and I believe that will happen some this year.

3. Alabama Crimson Tide – Alabama has a lot of question marks. They staggered down the stretch last year, but according to the "experts" they recruited a great freshman class. If this young talent blossoms this year, Bama could win eight or nine games. If not, they could wind up in the Independence Bowl for the second straight year. Alabama is a program on the move, but they are at least one year away from challenging for the divisional title.

4. Mississippi State Bulldogs – The Bulldogs were the feel good story of last year. After a lot of hard work and patience, Coach Sylvester Croom squeezed eight wins out of his team after struggling to rebuild the program. A lot of experienced players return, but the Bulldogs must improve their passing offense, which ranked 113th in the nation last year. State will not sneak up on anyone this year.

5. Mississippi Rebels – Perhaps the most important change in the conference since last season was the hiring of Houston Nutt as new head coach at Ole Miss. Most believe the Rebels have good young talent. Nutt has a strong reputation as a motivator and developer of talent. If he can apply those skills successfully at Ole Miss, the Rebels may be entering an era of success

6. Arkansas Razorbacks – Truthfully, I don't know what to make of Arkansas. New coach Bobby Petrino showed when he coached Louisville that he can develop a powerhouse. However, he isn't coaching in the Big East anymore, and the cupboard may be a little bare when it comes to talent at Arkansas. However, give them credit for playing on the road at Texas in September.

Mississippi State to take small step backward this year

Last year, Mississippi State was the feel good story of the SEC football season. Head coach Sylvester Croom had worked hard during his first three seasons to rebuild the program, but he had enjoyed little success. However, in 2007, an early season upset at Auburn sparked the team. The Bulldogs finished 8-5, including a win in the Liberty Bowl.

If the Bulldogs want to match that accomplishment, they must get better on offense. Running back Anthony Dixon ran for more than 1,000 yards last year, but he needs help. Wesley Carroll will likely get the nod at quarterback, but he was inconsistent last year. The Bulldogs finished 113th in the nation in passing offense last year.

This year, the Bulldogs will not sneak up on anybody. Auburn visits Starkville on September 13 and will be looking for payback for last years upset. Additionally, they have a difficult road schedule with visits to Georgia Tech, LSU, Tennessee, Alabama, and Ole Miss.

Though the Bulldogs will remain a solid squad this year, they won't win eight games. This season will likely be a small step backward, and it all relates back to the offense. Until that unit gets better, we may have already seen the best Mississippi State has to offer.

The Volunteers will continue to roll this Saturday at Mississippi State

The Tennessee Volunteers hit the road this week visiting Mississippi State. Last week, the Vols easily played their best game of the year in beating Georgia 35-14. Now the question is whether or not they can sustain that level of play from one week to the next.

Mississippi State's biggest liability is that they are one-dimensional on offense. They can't throw the ball and rank last in the conference in passing offense. However, they have a solid running game, averaging 161 yards per game. Anthony Dixon is their best running back. He ran for 152 yards against Alabama-Birmingham last week and is averaging 97.7 yards a game.

Though the Bulldogs have improved this year, they can't match Tennessee's athleticism. The Vols will simply have too much speed for them to handle. They will have some success running the ball, but expect Tennessee to run it effectively as well. Tennessee ran for 190 yards against Georgia, and it is no secret that they are most successful when they can mount a consistent ground game.

State is quietly having a nice year. Earlier this year, they beat Auburn on the road. Of course, Auburn made headlines a couple of weeks ago when they upset Florida at The Swamp. Mississippi State is 4-2 overall and 1-2 in the SEC with its only losses being to LSU and South Carolina.

In this game, quarterback Erik Ainge will continue his excellent season and Tennessee's speedy receivers will make big plays. The Vols could be emotionally flat after last week's important win and a big game against Alabama looming next week.

However, whatever hangover they have will disappear quickly.

The pick: Tennessee 31 Mississippi State 17

If a person needs further evidence that the Tennessee Titans are a legitimate playoff team this year, all he has to do is look at last week's win over Atlanta. Good teams find a way to win even when they are playing well below their potential and that happened against the Falcons.

Five turnovers and sloppy special teams put the Falcons in an excellent position to win. As good as quarterback Vince Young is, he had three interceptions and made poor decisions that reminded us he is only in his second year. However, the defense saved the day. Vincent Fuller returned an interception 76 yards for a touchdown and defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth made a remarkable play when the Falcons had the ball on the Titans one-yard line late in the game. Never has a 20-13 win looked so sweet.

This week, the Titans hit the road to play Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers are 3-2 but are coming off a 33-14 loss to Indianapolis. Quarterback Jeff Garcia is steady, but they have had a lot of injuries in the backfield. Last week, they only rushed for a total of 17 yards. Given how well Tennessee is defending the run, the Bucs' troubles running the ball will likely continue this week.

Look for Young to bounce back and have a nice game. Tampa Bay is solid on defense so don't look for big numbers from Young or the running game. However, the Titans' offense only needs to be good this week, not great. After last week's performance, they have nowhere to go but up.

The pick: Tennessee 21 Tampa Bay 17

Other SEC picks: LSU over Kentucky, Georgia over Vanderbilt, South Carolina over North Carolina, Alabama over Ole Miss, Arkansas over Auburn

Other NFL picks: Jacksonville over Houston, Cincinnati over Kansas City, Chicago over Minnesota, New England over Dallas

Last week: 11-3 (.786), Overall: 56-15 (.789)