Vanderbilt should win six games in 2012 and be bowl bound again

Dynamite year ahead for Vandy?

Vanderbilt football has a spring in its step, and the primary reason is head coach James Franklin. In his first year, he breathed emotion into a program that struggles to consistently win. The result was a six-win season and a Liberty Bowl berth. Despite an offseason that saw a few missteps (insulting comments about women, charges of tampering with players at Maryland), Franklin appears to have his team ready to roll this year. The result should be another six-win season and the first back-to-back bowl berths in school history.

The team's strength is its offensive backfield, specifically its running backs. Zac Stacy and Warren Norman anchor a unit that is among the best in the Southeastern Conference (and that is saying a lot). If quarterback Jordan Rodgers can just be consistent, the offense should be able to control the clock and put numbers on the board.

If there is a major difference compared to last year, it is that the schedule is not as inviting. Last year, the Commodores opened with three home games against beatable foes (Elon, Connecticut, and Ole Miss), which got them off to a hot start.  This year, the schedule is more challenging even though they avoid playing Alabama, LSU and Arkansas.

Here is Vanderbilt's schedule:  Aug. 30 vs. South Carolina, Sept. 8 at Northwestern, Sept. 15 vs. Presbyterian, Sept. 22 at Georgia, Oct. 6 at Missouri, Oct. 13 vs. Florida, Oct. 20 vs. Auburn, Oct. 27 vs. Massachusetts, Nov. 3 at Kentucky, Nov. 10 at Ole Miss, Nov. 17 vs. Tennessee, Nov. 24 at Wake Forest.

The games against Presbyterian and Massachusetts are guaranteed wins for the Commodores so there are two wins right there.  Where will the other four come from?  The season begins at home against ninth-ranked South Carolina. While some have expressed frustration about opening the season with a conference foe that is so good, I think this is good for Vandy. Playing Carolina so early allows them to avoid the wear and tear of the season that usually hurts their depth, which will help in this game. I am picking Carolina to win, but this game should be an interesting measuring stick regarding the program's growth.

The game at Northwestern is a huge swing game if the team is going to return to a bowl. Northwestern is a solid Big 10 program, and both schools face similar challenges when it comes to competing in a power conference.  However, when it comes to SEC/Big 10 matchups, a person should always take the SEC school (even if the game is on the road).  So, Vanderbilt should win this one.

Next, Vandy plays Presbyterian then travels to Georgia. Georgia is the best team in the SEC Eastern Division.  I do not see Vandy winning, but it is another measuring stick game. How far has Vandy's program come?  This is one of those games that tell us.  With a loss here, Vandy ends September with a 2-2 record.

October opens with a trip to Missouri and likely another loss. I am not convinced the Commodores are to the point they can go on the road and beat a big state school (even one new to the conference).  After this, a pivotal three-game homestand begins with games against Florida, Auburn, and Massachusetts. I already stated the Massachusetts game will be a victory.  Both Auburn and Florida should be much improved, but I cannot see Vandy losing both those games at home. I am taking Vandy to beat Auburn and finishing October with a 4-4 record.

November opens with two road games at Kentucky and at Ole Miss.  These are the two weakest teams in the SEC, and Vandy should win both to improve to 6-4. However, I seem them losing their last two. In recent years, the Commodores have played worse against Tennessee at home than in Knoxville.  Also, I know Vandy waxed Wake Forest last year, but the Demon Deacons are too good not to be motivated for revenge for that embarrassment.

So, Vandy will finish 6-6, and that should be good enough for a trip to the Music City, Liberty or Independence bowls.

Vanderbilt coach James Franklin suffered big misstep with media

Two steps forward and one step back. At least, this is the way every day seems to me. All of us try very hard, but occasionally, we do something that is wrong or offensive.

I could not help but think of this principle several weeks ago when Vanderbilt head football coach James Franklin made some unfortunate comments about his hiring practices when it comes to selecting assistant coaches. He was talking in an informal way on a Nashville radio station when he made his comments.

As published in The Tennessean, he said:  "I've been saying it for a long time. I will not hire an assistant coach until I’ve seen his wife. If she looks the part, and she’s a D-1 recruit, then you got a chance to get hired. That’s part of the deal. There’s a very strong correlation between having the confidence, going up and talking to a woman, and being quick on your feet and having some personality and confidence and being fun and articulate, than it is walking into a high school and recruiting a kid and selling him."

So, in order to be hired by Franklin, a coach has to have a smokin’ hot wife? That is what he meant by the term "D-1 recruit." He said he was joking when he made the comments, but if he has been saying this for a long time, I have to wonder if this is not partly true. After all, many people try to use humor to put across their ideas.

After receiving a talk from his boss, Franklin apologized. I will give him the benefit of the doubt and believe that he was sincere. However, he apologized by Twitter, which has always struck me as the last resort when it comes to giving apologies. Twitter comes across as a way for people to say they are sorry in the most benign way possible and not get their hands dirty.

Of course, my big concern with Franklin’s comments is how he emphasized the physical attractiveness of a woman when determining her quality as a wife. His comments seem to indicate that a man without an extremely attractive woman is somehow deficient in some way.

Unfortunately, his comments represent a common mistake when it comes to determining beauty. Physical looks is just one component when determining beauty. I am sure most of us have met somebody who is very physically attractive, but after getting to know them better, we learn there is absolutely nothing beautiful about them.

However, the attitude put forth by Franklin can lead us down a slippery slope. This leads to the objectifying of women and leads generation after generation of females into having to live up to this distorted stereotype of what beauty should be.

True, Franklin is just a football coach, and who cares what he thinks about beauty? Still, his comments show how this mentality manifests itself in all aspects of life. After all, this concept of beauty is repeatedly thrown in our faces.

Certainly, we see this in advertising. When we watch a car commercial, we often see a beautiful woman standing beside the vehicle being described. If a company is selling toothpaste, then undoubtedly, there will be a vivacious young woman convincing us that our lives will be a misery if we do not use the brand she uses.

I could go on and on, but I think we all get the point. We have to be very careful when determining who or what is beautiful.

Additionally, it struck me odd how quickly the Franklin controversy blew over. It seems the Nashville media often grades Vanderbilt sports on a curve so they let a lot of things go. If somebody like University of Tennessee head coach Derek Dooley had made these comments, the controversy would have been much longer lasting.

Vanderbilt football poised to become a consistent winner in the SEC

Vanderbilt's football team was one of the best stories of the 2008 season. Having not had a winning season or a bowl berth since 1982, the Commodores scratched for six wins then beat a good Boston College team in the Music City Bowl to finish 7-6.

Their success is a reminder of just how pointless pre-season predictions can be. Most experts picked Vanderbilt to have a losing season last year. My Vanderbilt prediction was one of my worst in 2008. I said they would go 3-9 (click here to read my lamentable prediction in its entirety), and I continue to eat crow for that pick.

This year, Vanderbilt is a fascinating team to study. On the positive side, the Commodores have a ton of talent returning. Eight starters on offense and nine starters on defense are back. In the ultra-competitive SEC, a team can never have too much experience.

The key to the team is who will emerge as starting quarterback. Mackenzi Adams and Larry Smith will battle for the spot, but regardless of how it shakes out, both players will likely see time on the field during the season. If Vandy becomes more consistent at quarterback and takes advantage of having so much returning talent, the team could be considerably better this year.

However, that conclusion over-simplifies the situation in which Vanderbilt finds itself. Frankly, one issue that must be addressed is whether or not the team can handle prosperity. It is a fair question. This is a situation the program has not experienced in decades (if ever). It's easy to be the underdog, but when expectations are high, it can weigh on a team.

Additionally, this year's schedule is a challenge. Every SEC team plays a tough schedule because of how competitive the conference is. Here is Vandy's slate:

Sept. 5: vs. Western Carolina
Sept. 12: at LSU
Sept. 19: vs. Mississippi State
Sept. 26: at Rice
Oct. 3: vs. Ole Miss
Oct. 10: at Army
Oct. 17: vs. Georgia
Oct. 24: at South Carolina
Oct. 31: vs. Georgia Tech
Nov. 7: at Florida
Nov. 14: vs. Kentucky
Nov. 21: at Tennessee

The first thing that leaps off the schedule is that Vandy does not have a bye week. Will playing 12 games in 12 weeks grind the team down? Plus, the 'Dores only play six home games. This means they must find wins on the road to qualify for a bowl.

All the home games are winnable, but Georgia Tech may be too strong. The Yellow Jackets came on strong at the end of last season (just ask Georgia). However, if Vandy loses a couple at home, they could offset this with winnable road games at Rice, Army, South Carolina, and Tennessee. The Commodores should win at least two of those.

I see Vanderbilt going 6-6 again with another trip to a bowl. It won't be the Music City Bowl because bowls don't like to have teams in consecutive years. The Liberty Bowl or Independence Bowl is the likely landing spot.

If this happens, Vandy will go to a bowl game in back-to-back seasons for the first time in school history.

Volunteers must hope Vanderbilt has let down after clinching bowl berth

The college football universe has truly been turned upside down: Vanderbilt is going to a bowl and Tennessee is not. But seriously, the Commodores must be congratulated on a good season. Quarterback Chris Nickson played well in leading Vandy to a win against Kentucky last week to clinch bowl eligibility.

Imagine the relief for Vanderbilt supporters. Though it has been well publicized that they haven't been to a bowl since 1982, they haven't actually won a bowl since 1955. They beat Auburn (who they also beat this year) in the Gator Bowl that year.

While many have speculated that they will go to the Music City Bowl, I don't see that happening. The whole point of a bowl is to attract tourists to a city, and that wouldn't happen if Vandy were invited. Therefore, look for the Commodores to go to the Liberty or Independence Bowl.

As for Tennessee, they have had a couple of weeks to ponder the firing/letting go of Phillip Fulmer, and their terrible loss to Wyoming. I'm tempted to say things couldn't get worse for the Vols, but after everything I've seen this year, I'm not so sure.

Quarterback Jonathan Crompton will get the start. Hopefully, red shirt freshman B.J. Coleman will also see some action at quarterback, and the Commodores will have an emotional let down after such a big win last week. Vandy, however, is the better team.

The pick: Vanderbilt 14 Tennessee 13

Other SEC picks: Florida over Citadel, LSU over Mississippi, Arkansas over Mississippi State

Last week: 5-1 (.833), Overall: 64-20 (.762)

Tennessee, Mississippi State mirror each other in important ways

A casual glance around the Southeastern Conference reveals there are several teams with a lot in common. More and more teams have developed good defenses but been saddled with bad offenses.

Of course, Tennessee leads the way in this department. After the Vols' one rushing yard effort against Georgia, they are really struggling and putting more and more pressure on the defense. This week's opponent Mississippi State has also had trouble scoring consistently though running back Anthony Dixon has helped the Bulldogs develop a fairly dependable running game.

Kentucky and Auburn have also floundered consistently on offense. Even after Tommy Tuberville fired offensive coordinator Tony Franklin, the Tigers lost to Arkansas at home, which has to be the biggest upset of the conference season so far. Also, Vanderbilt is in danger of falling into this category as quarterbacks Mackenzi Adams and Chris Nickson both struggle.

As for this week's Tennessee/Mississippi State match up, if either team can score 20 points, I believe they will win. The Vols have only scored 45 points in their last four games, while the Bulldogs' offense showed signs of life against Vanderbilt and LSU in their last two games.

However, the Vols are playing at home. Expect this to be a physical game much like last year's game in Starkville. Tennessee won down there last year, and I believe they will get it done Saturday.

The pick: Tennessee 20 Mississippi State 17

Other SEC picks: Georgia over Vanderbilt, LSU over South Carolina, Kentucky over Arkansas, Alabama over Ole Miss

Last week: 2-3 (.400), Overall: 40-13 (.757)

Random thoughts from SEC action last weekend

Will the real Ole Miss please stand up? – Imagine what it must be like to be an Ole Miss fan this year. In the last three weeks, the Rebels have lost to Vanderbilt at home, beaten Florida at The Swamp, and lost to South Carolina at home. It is an obvious example of growing pains under first-year coach Houston Nutt, but it has to be maddening to the fans.

Twin sons of different mothers? – Is it just me or do Kentucky and Tennessee seem like mirror reflections of each other? Both have good defenses and bad offenses. If you are a Tennessee fan, this realization has to make you sad. Very sad.

Some teams thrive in the spotlight – Vanderbilt has had an amazing season so far, but things got taken up a notch last week. ESPN was on campus, and Auburn was clearly their toughest challenge so far. That said, their inexperience in big-time games really showed in the first quarter. They looked tentative and a step slow while falling behind 13-0. However, after that, they were clearly better than the Tigers in rallying to win 14-13. Auburn is starting to look more like Kentucky and Tennessee than LSU.

Up and then down, up and then down – I know Alabama is undefeated, but there can be no denying they have been erratic at times. After opening the season with a thrashing of Clemson, they struggled to beat Tulane the following week. Likewise, after embarrassing Georgia, they struggled at home against Kentucky. If this trend continues, it could cost them a championship.

It's no fun being young in the SEC – Arkansas is playing 16 freshmen on a regular basis, and they are getting pasted almost every Saturday. Last Saturday, they trailed Florida only 17-7 late in the third quarter, but collapsed late to lose 38-7.

One final note – Any Saturday is a good Saturday when Michigan loses.

Top of SEC's Eastern Division will be a jumble this year

Too many, Georgia is the clear-cut team to beat in the SEC East this year, but I don't think so. I think the Bulldogs have the potential to win it, but we all know the SEC is a conference of parity.

I don't see any team winning the SEC East outright this year. The divisional winner will have at least two conference losses, which means all of us will have to brush up on the conference's tiebreaker rules when it comes to determining which team will play in the SEC title game.

Frankly, I think this will be a season of surprises. Here is how I think it will shake out.

1. Florida Gators – While most of the talk surrounds quarterback Tim Tebow, the Gators will take a step forward this year because of its improved defense. The defense was inexperienced last year and was flat-out awful at times. It won't be great this year, but it will be good enough because the Gators should score a ton of points. Expecting Tebow to match his output of last year would be unfair, but he is the main reason the Gators will continue to score a lot of points.

2. Tennessee Volunteers – Even though the Volunteers return 16 starters from last year's divisional winning team, there isn't much talk about them repeating as champion. If the Vols develop depth on their defensive line and new quarterback Jonathan Crompton continues to progress, Tennessee will be right in the mix. A lot of people appear to be down on Coach Phillip Fulmer these days, but his career record is 147-45 (that's 102 games above .500 folks). I think some in the Vol Nation need to appreciate what they have.

3. Georgia Bulldogs – I know, I know. All the hype this year says Georgia should be a national championship contender, so how can I have them picked third in their own division? Just look at the schedule. The Bulldogs play six teams that have head coaches who have won national championships. The Bulldogs have the talent, but sometimes the schedule is just too tough. Prove me wrong, Georgia.

4. South Carolina Gamecocks – What is the state of the South Carolina program? Are they as good as they were when they started last season 6-1? Or, are they as bad as they were when they lost their last five games? Actually, they are somewhere in between. This year's team will be like many Carolina teams over the last five years. The Gamecocks will win seven games and go to a minor bowl. There is something bland about South Carolina football. I never thought I would say that about a Steve Spurrier coached team.

5. Kentucky Wildcats – Quarterback Andre Woodson carried Kentucky to eight wins last year, but he is gone, leaving a huge void on the team. Until a playmaker of his caliber steps forward, Kentucky will struggle. The Wildcats have a solid defense and a weak non-conference schedule, which means they will go bowling. However, 7-5 may be the best they can hope for.

6. Vanderbilt Commodores – Vandy lost a ton of talent from last year. Coach Bobby Johnson has done an excellent job improving the Commodores overall talent level, but this is clearly a transition year. Johnson is a good coach. Let’s hope Vanderbilt's administration continues to show patience with him.

Unfortunately, Vanderbilt will post another losing football season

As a graduate of the University of Tennessee, I know I shouldn't admit this, but I quietly cheer for Vanderbilt's football team. Obviously, I've never cheered for them against Tennessee, but I do have a soft spot for the team. I've lived about one hour from the school for most of my life, and the first college football games I attended as a youth were Vanderbilt games.

Last year, everything seemed aligned for Vanderbilt to earn its first winning season and bowl berth since 1982. They had a lot of experience (especially on the offensive line) and talent. Here on my blog, I was among those who picked Vandy to finally get the monkey off its back, but the Commodores faded down the stretch and finished 5-7.

This year, I am not optimistic. The entire offensive line must be re-worked, and there is a lot of inexperience. Coach Bobby Johnson has been excellent since taking the job there. Even though this year looks like the proverbial rebuilding season, the program is still much better than when he took it over.

Looking at Vandy's schedule, I have a big beef with the school administration. The Commodores play their first game on the road at Miami (Ohio). I don't have a problem with them playing Miami, but I do have a problem in that it is a road game.

A SEC team should never play a Mid-American Conference (MAC) team on the road. Unfortunately for Vandy, the Redhawks are the favorites by many to win the MAC. They would love nothing more than to knock off a SEC team to start their season. So, thanks a lot to the schedule maker for coming up with this stroke of genius.

As for the rest of the schedule, I see Vandy beating Duke and Rice (both games are at home). Other than that, the pickings are pretty slim.

Unfortunately, I'm gonna have to listen to my head instead of my heart. Vandy will go 3-9 at best this season.

Tennessee is truly a hotbed for men's college hoops

If a person needed more evidence proving that Tennessee contains great men's college basketball, all he would have to do is look at the number of schools the state is sending to the NCAA tournament.

Over the weekend, both Belmont and Austin Peay earned berths in the tourney by winning their conference tournaments. Tennessee, Vanderbilt, and Memphis are guaranteed to make the big dance so that means five schools from the Volunteer state will play deep into March.

If there is a state that will be sending that many, I am unaware of it.

Too bad the big boys at ESPN don't recognize this.

Vanderbilt/Tennessee men's hoops match up should be a good one Thursday night

Besides the NCAA tournament, college basketball is at its best when conference play first begins in early January. This is when the contenders and the pretenders begin to get separated.

On Thursday night, Vanderbilt (16-1, 1-1) visits Tennessee (14-1, 2-0) in the best match up so far in the SEC.

Vanderbilt received its first loss on Saturday, falling to Kentucky in double overtime in Lexington. Tennessee looked great on its road trip to South Carolina, whipping the Gamecocks 80-56.

Newcomer Tyler Smith continues to sparkle for the Vols while Vandy big man A. J. Ogilvy definitely gives the Commodores an inside presence. Tennessee's biggest weakness is rebounding, especially on the offensive boards. Ogilvy could give them match up problems.

Since the game is in Knoxville, I'm taking the Vols (then again, I would take them if they were playing in Nashville).

If you are only a casual basketball fan, make sure to watch this one. The two teams have a combined 30-2 record.

You don't see that every day.

Vandy's dream of going to a bowl on the verge of happening

Back on June 12, I took the plunge and predicted that Vanderbilt's football team would return to a bowl game this season for the first time since 1982. The upset of South Carolina last Saturday was just the jolt they needed to keep that dream alive.

After going 3-1 to start the season, the Commodores lost back-to-back games to Auburn and Georgia. True, Auburn and Georgia aren't slouches, but the team definitely looked like it was beginning to fade.

However, the win at South Carolina puts them back on track to reach this goal.

Five games remain, and they need two more wins to become bowl eligible. A team has to have six wins to qualify for a bowl. Where will those wins come from? The schedule is challenging the rest of the way.

Win number five should come this week against Miami of Ohio. After that, Vandy plays at Florida, Kentucky at home, at Tennessee, and Wake Forest at home. Assuming a win this week, they will have to win one of those final four games.

Of course, Kentucky is much better than expected this year and playing at Florida is always a grind. Vandy won at Tennessee in 2005 so that is a possibility, while Wake Forest is having a solid season following last year's ACC championship and trip to the Orange Bowl.

The bottom line is if Vandy wants to go to a bowl, then they will have to earn it.

There are no cupcakes down the stretch.