Showing posts with label Vanderbilt Commodores 2009. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Vanderbilt Commodores 2009. Show all posts

Thursday, August 20, 2009

It will be Florida and the five stooges in the SEC East this year

The Florida Gators will dominate the SEC Eastern Division this year. They are clearly the best team in the division and will beat Alabama in December in the SEC championship game.

In looking at the East, the Gators will likely be better this year while the other five teams will be the same or regress compared to 2008.

Here is how it should shake out:

1. Florida -- Quarterback Tim Tebow is the best SEC quarterback since Peyton Manning, and he should have won the Heisman Trophy last year. All starters return on an athletic and aggressive defense. Last year, the Gators beat their SEC East rivals by an average of 39.8 points per game. The most challenging game they will likely face is when they play at LSU in early October. There are not many sure things in sports, but Florida looks like one.

2. Georgia -- The Bulldogs should finish in second place, but they will take a step back this year because of the loss of quarterback Matthew Stafford and running back Knowshon Moreno. True, Georgia has an experienced and solid offensive line, but they have lost too many playmakers. Wide receiver A.J. Green is excellent, but can new quarterback Joe Cox get him the ball enough? We will find out in a hurry because Georgia has road games at Oklahoma State and Arkansas in September. The home games that month are not easy ones either: vs. South Carolina and Arizona State.

3. Tennessee -- The time for talking is over for new Tennessee head coach Lane Kiffin. The Volunteers will have a new look this year, but will it translate into more wins? Quarterback Jonathan Crompton has been solid in fall practice. If he can just be consistent this year, it will benefit the team greatly. If freshman running back Bryce Brown's eligibility can be cleared up, he should give them a much needed boost when it comes to providing big plays. Their first big test is on Sept. 12 against a much improved UCLA team.

4. South Carolina -- Has college football passed by Gamecocks' head coach Steve Spurrier? Entering his fifth season at Carolina, he has not been able to recapture the magic he had at Florida. He has not developed a first-rate quarterback while there. Current quarterback Stephen Garcia likely has the best raw talent of any signal caller Spurrier has had at Carolina. However, he has not blossomed. If he does not, it looks like another seven-win season for the Gamecocks.

5. Vanderbilt -- Coach Bobby Johnson has done a remarkable job building the Vanderbilt program. Most would agree that the Commodores have more quality depth than at any other time in the program's history. In the SEC, this is a must. If Vanderbilt wants to visit another bowl game, it must find a way to steal a conference game on the road. The Commodores have done this in recent years, and South Carolina may be the best opportunity this year. Vandy won there in 2007.

6. Kentucky -- Offense could be Kentucky's undoing this year. Quarterback Mike Hartline has to be better this year, and the Wildcats need more production from their running backs and wide receivers. The defense looks solid and will be led by cornerback Trevard Lindley, linebacker Micah Johnson, and defensive end Jeremy Jarmon.

Wednesday, July 15, 2009

Vanderbilt football poised to become a consistent winner in the SEC

Vanderbilt's football team was one of the best stories of the 2008 season. Having not had a winning season or a bowl berth since 1982, the Commodores scratched for six wins then beat a good Boston College team in the Music City Bowl to finish 7-6.

Their success is a reminder of just how pointless pre-season predictions can be. Most experts picked Vanderbilt to have a losing season last year. My Vanderbilt prediction was one of my worst in 2008. I said they would go 3-9 (click here to read my lamentable prediction in its entirety), and I continue to eat crow for that pick.

This year, Vanderbilt is a fascinating team to study. On the positive side, the Commodores have a ton of talent returning. Eight starters on offense and nine starters on defense are back. In the ultra-competitive SEC, a team can never have too much experience.

The key to the team is who will emerge as starting quarterback. Mackenzi Adams and Larry Smith will battle for the spot, but regardless of how it shakes out, both players will likely see time on the field during the season. If Vandy becomes more consistent at quarterback and takes advantage of having so much returning talent, the team could be considerably better this year.

However, that conclusion over-simplifies the situation in which Vanderbilt finds itself. Frankly, one issue that must be addressed is whether or not the team can handle prosperity. It is a fair question. This is a situation the program has not experienced in decades (if ever). It's easy to be the underdog, but when expectations are high, it can weigh on a team.

Additionally, this year's schedule is a challenge. Every SEC team plays a tough schedule because of how competitive the conference is. Here is Vandy's slate:

Sept. 5: vs. Western Carolina
Sept. 12: at LSU
Sept. 19: vs. Mississippi State
Sept. 26: at Rice
Oct. 3: vs. Ole Miss
Oct. 10: at Army
Oct. 17: vs. Georgia
Oct. 24: at South Carolina
Oct. 31: vs. Georgia Tech
Nov. 7: at Florida
Nov. 14: vs. Kentucky
Nov. 21: at Tennessee

The first thing that leaps off the schedule is that Vandy does not have a bye week. Will playing 12 games in 12 weeks grind the team down? Plus, the 'Dores only play six home games. This means they must find wins on the road to qualify for a bowl.

All the home games are winnable, but Georgia Tech may be too strong. The Yellow Jackets came on strong at the end of last season (just ask Georgia). However, if Vandy loses a couple at home, they could offset this with winnable road games at Rice, Army, South Carolina, and Tennessee. The Commodores should win at least two of those.

I see Vanderbilt going 6-6 again with another trip to a bowl. It won't be the Music City Bowl because bowls don't like to have teams in consecutive years. The Liberty Bowl or Independence Bowl is the likely landing spot.

If this happens, Vandy will go to a bowl game in back-to-back seasons for the first time in school history.