Odds stacked against Tennessee as Alabama comes to Knoxville

Tennessee's 34-3 drubbing of Mississippi State last week couldn't have come at a better time for the Volunteers.

For the first time all year, both the offense and defense played well in the same game. The offense got off to its customary slow start, but settled down and produced four drives that had 10 plays or more. The defense registered five sacks and had three interceptions, two of which were returned for touchdowns.

However, despite its win against Vanderbilt, Mississippi State is an average team at best. This week, Tennessee plays perhaps the best team in the Southeastern Conference when Alabama visits Knoxville.

In zooming to a 7-0 record, Alabama has jumped on opponents early. The best example was their racing to a 31-0 halftime lead against Georgia as they thoroughly outplayed the Bulldogs. They did the same against Clemson and Ole Miss.

Tennessee, on the other hand, has been plagued by slow starts. This is primarily because the offense has scored a total of 14 points in the first quarter all season. In last week's win, the Vols led only 6-3 at the half, but slow starts killed them against Florida and Georgia.

The Vols simply can't allow Alabama to jump on them early. The offense doesn't have the firepower to overcome a large deficit.

To win, Tennessee must control the game's tempo, which means the game must be an old-fashioned slugfest where the defense and special teams determine the flow of the game. If it becomes a shoot-out, Tennessee doesn't stand a chance.

The pick: Alabama 23 Tennessee 13

Other SEC picks: LSU over Georgia, Florida over Kentucky, Vanderbilt over Duke, West Virginia over Auburn, Mississippi State over Middle Tennessee, Mississippi over Arkansas.

Last week: 5-0 (1.000), Overall: 45-13 (.775)

Tennessee Volunteers must overcome offensive demons to have chance at Georgia

Most Tennessee Volunteer fans already know this, but the start to this season is much like the start of the 1994 season. Back in '94, we began with a narrow road loss at UCLA. We sputtered to a 1-3 start mostly because of uncertainty at quarterback, which has been the case this year. In '94, we narrowly defeated Washington State 10-9 in game number five to improve to 2-3. Of course, we edged Northern Illinois last week by the nearly identical score of 13-9 to improve to 2-3.

For the sake of Vols' fans, we better hope this year winds up like '94. After that slow start, Tennessee rallied to finish 8-4 and beat Virginia Tech in the Gator Bowl. Of course, that team was led by a rapidly maturing freshman quarterback named Peyton Manning.

Unfortunately for this year's team, there isn't a quarterback of Manning's caliber. However, Nick Stephens did well in his first start last week. He appeared comfortable and more decisive in his decision making than Jonathan Crompton did in the first four games. Then again, that was against Northern Illinois. This week the Vols travel to Georgia.

Though most of the focus is on our quarterback play, our running attack must improve. Tennessee managed only 69 yards rushing last week, and Stephens must get more help than that. The defense has been fabulous, and must keep it up. Tennessee must force at least three turnovers to have a chance to win. And it would be nice if we could go one game without a blocked punt or a fumble inside our 10-yard line.

Tennessee is catching Georgia at a bad time. The Bulldogs got whipped two weeks ago by Alabama and have had all this time to think about it. Plus, the three-touchdown whipping Tennessee gave them last year is fresh in their minds.

Look for this game to be close for three quarters, but the Bulldogs will pull away in the fourth.

The pick: Georgia 27 Tennessee 13

Other picks: Florida over LSU, Kentucky over South Carolina, Vanderbilt over Mississippi State, Auburn over Arkansas

Last week: 4-1 (.800), Overall: 38-10 (.791)

Tennessee in a must-win situation against Northern Illinois this Saturday

Back in the summer, I never dreamed this week's game against Northern Illinois would be a must-win game for the Tennessee Volunteers. However, that is what it has become after opening with three losses in four games. Tennessee has to win this game to keep its bowl hopes alive.

As we all know, the offense can't consistently move the ball, much less score. The loss to Auburn was one of the most frustrating ones in recent years because of all the opportunities we had to pull it out in the fourth quarter. Great field position was squandered time after time.

As of this writing, we don't know who will start at quarterback for the Vols. Phillip Fulmer said Jonathan Crompton and Nick Stephens will split snaps this week in practice. My guess is that we will see both of them a lot the rest of the season. But to paraphrase an old football cliché: "Any team that has to play two quarterbacks really doesn't have one at all."

The bottom line is all the Vols need from the quarterback position is consistent management of the game. This is because the defense has looked really good the last two games, and special teams improved significantly against Auburn.

We have to avoid the crippling mistakes that we've seen time after time this year.

As for this week, the Vols will win, but we are still feeling our way.

The pick: Tennessee 24 Northern Illinois 17

Other SEC picks: Vanderbilt over Auburn, Florida over Arkansas, Ole Miss over South Carolina, Alabama over Kentucky

Last week: 5-2 (.714), Overall: 34-9 (.791)

Tennessee's season hinges on the Auburn game

With the stench of the Florida loss still lingering in Neyland Stadium, the Tennessee Volunteers have to pull themselves together for a tough test at Auburn on Saturday. I won't re-hash the Florida loss. It speaks for itself. It was a debacle that embarrassed the program nationally.

Simply put, Tennessee has to beat Auburn. With a loss, the program could be looking at a repeat of the 2005 season when the Vols finished 5-6 and didn't go to a bowl for the first time since 1988. It's that urgent. A loss Saturday will likely cause a complete lack of motivation for the rest of the season.

A win, however, will keep UT in the hunt for the SEC Eastern Division title. Based on what we've seen so far, that seems like the mother of all long shots already, but hope is a good thing.

Auburn is one of the toughest places to play in the league. However, the Vols have a few things going for them. Auburn is coming off a tough, emotional loss to LSU. As we all know, LSU usually beats up its opponents so badly that is often takes them weeks to recover (ask Alabama from last year). Plus, Auburn's offense is as inconsistent as Tennessee's. In a low scoring game, the Vols have a chance.

Still, based on what we've seen so far, can we expect Tennessee to rise to the occasion in such a hostile environment? My heart says one thing, but I better go with my brain.

The pick: Auburn 16 Tennessee 7

Other SEC picks: Georgia over Alabama, Florida over Ole Miss, South Carolina over UAB, Kentucky over Western Kentucky, LSU over Mississippi State, Texas over Arkansas

Last week: 5-2 (.714), Overall: 29-7 (.806)

Look for Florida to beat Tennessee on Saturday

Tennessee plays its first Southeastern Conference game this Saturday when Florida comes to Knoxville. What a way to start conference play. The Gators are tough, and Tennessee will have to find another gear if it hopes to win.

We all know about Florida. Quarterback Tim Tebow is the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, and he has a lot of weapons on offense to use. Questions still surround the Gators' defense, but the unit looked strong in holding Miami, FL, to only three points in their last game.

Tennessee showed a lot of improvement against Alabama-Birmingham last week. I know fans like to see the Vols air it out, but quarterback Jonathan Crompton's 31 passes against the Blazers seemed way too much. We have an experienced offensive line and several first-rate running backs. The bottom line is the Vols will have to throw the ball less and run the ball more to beat Florida.

Given Tennessee's inconsistency in its first two games, I just can't pick them. The UCLA loss still stings, and the wound got deeper last Saturday when the Bruins played Brigham Young and got flattened 59-0. Just thinking about that makes me choke on the bile in my throat.

Florida will find ways to make more big plays than Tennessee and that will propel them to victory.

The pick: Florida 34 Tennessee 20

Other SEC picks: Arizona State over Georgia, LSU over Auburn, Ole Miss over Vanderbilt, South Carolina over Wofford, Alabama over Arkansas, Georgia Tech over Mississippi State

Last week: 7-0 (1.000), Overall: 24-5 (.828)

Tennessee will get back on track against UAB this week...right?

Well, it's been almost two weeks since Tennessee's disastrous opening game loss to UCLA, and it has given us all some time to consider what we have learned from that game.

We learned that Jonathan Crompton is only good enough to be the fourth-string quarterback at UCLA (at least at this point anyway). I'm sure we all expected inconsistency from Crompton, but he went long stretches where he appeared incapable of completing a pass. Of course, that wasn't his entire fault. For unknown reasons, Tennessee completely abandoned the run for most of the second half. Let's hope offensive coordinator Dave Clawson has a little better game calling plays against Alabama-Birmingham this week.

We learned that our tradition of starting the season with shaky special teams will be extended at least one more year. One blocked punt and three missed field goals are one of the primary reasons the Volunteers lost. True, a couple of the field goals were more than 50 yards, but we never got our mojo going on special teams all night.

This Saturday, Alabama-Birmingham visits Knoxville for the home opener. The Blazers are 0-2 with losses to Tulsa and Florida-Atlantic.

There is no question Tennessee will win this game, but the key is to see how they react to the UCLA loss. Will they come out and simply go through the motions or will they be motivated and take out their frustrations on the Blazers?

Given the Vols inconsistent nature in recent years, I think it will be a little of both.

The pick: Tennessee 34 Alabama-Birmingham 24

Other SEC picks: Georgia over South Carolina, Kentucky over Middle Tennessee State, Vanderbilt over Rice, LSU over North Texas, Auburn over Mississippi State, Alabama over Western Kentucky, Texas over Arkansas, Ole Miss over Samford

Last week: 9-1 (.900), Overall: 17-5 (.773)

SEC already showing why it is the nation's best football conference

If week one of the college football season revealed anything, it is that the SEC remains the best conference in the country.

While teams like Florida, Georgia, and Auburn abused creampuffs, other teams made impressive statements. Alabama buried Clemson, Kentucky embarrassed Louisville, and South Carolina shut out North Carolina State. Of course, Tennessee put a blotch on the conference's resume by losing to UCLA, but even the best conferences don't beat every non-conference opponent.

I know the rest of the country gets tired of hearing it, but the SEC rules. Until a conference comes along that can wrestle the crown away from it, the rest of the country should treat the conference with awed silence.

However, I believe a special nod should go to the Big 12. I like some of what I'm seeing from that conference. In addition to Oklahoma, I believe Missouri can be a special team if they can play some defense.

Week Two SEC picks: Florida over Miami (FL), Wake Forest over Ole Miss, South Carolina over Vanderbilt, Kentucky over Norfolk State, LSU over Troy, Auburn over Southern Mississippi, Alabama over Tulane, Mississippi State over Southeastern Louisiana, Arkansas over Louisiana-Monroe, Georgia over Central Michigan

Last week: 8-4 (.667)

I'm still not buying the hype regarding Georgia winning the 2008 college football title

Since I have already been writing some opinions regarding the SEC and teams outside the conference, I thought I would revisit what I wrote about Georgia back in March.

My feelings now are as strong as they were back then.

Almost since the end of the 2007 college football season, a lot of experts have been touting the Georgia Bulldogs as a national championship contender in 2008. The Bulldogs completed last season with a flourish and stomped Hawaii in the Sugar Bowl.

Several of the college football preview magazines have them ranked number one, and the ones that don't have them ranked near the top.

I concede the Bulldogs will enter the 2008 season with a lot of momentum, and they also have the luxury of having most of their starters back from last year. However, they will not win the national championship.

Why? Because their schedule is too tough.

Here it is:

August 30 -- Georgia Southern
September 6 -- Central Michigan
September 13 -- at South Carolina
September 20 -- at Arizona State
September 27 -- Alabama
October 11 -- Tennessee
October 18 -- Vanderbilt
October 25 -- at LSU
November 1 -- Florida (at Jacksonville, Fla.)
November 8 -- at Kentucky
November 15 -- at Auburn
November 29 -- Georgia Tech

That is a brutal schedule, and it is not set up for a national championship run. There are at least two losses on that schedule. I know LSU won the title last year with two losses, but that was the exception rather than the rule. It won't happen again soon.

Six of the Bulldogs games are against teams that have head coaches who have won national championships (South Carolina, Arizona State, Alabama, Tennessee, LSU, and Florida). The Bulldogs picked the wrong year to have LSU come onto their schedule. In consecutive weeks they play at LSU then must play Florida.

Sorry, Georgia fans. Your team may be great this year but you will be lucky to win the SEC championship much less the national title.

Mississippi State to take small step backward this year

Last year, Mississippi State was the feel good story of the SEC football season. Head coach Sylvester Croom had worked hard during his first three seasons to rebuild the program, but he had enjoyed little success. However, in 2007, an early season upset at Auburn sparked the team. The Bulldogs finished 8-5, including a win in the Liberty Bowl.

If the Bulldogs want to match that accomplishment, they must get better on offense. Running back Anthony Dixon ran for more than 1,000 yards last year, but he needs help. Wesley Carroll will likely get the nod at quarterback, but he was inconsistent last year. The Bulldogs finished 113th in the nation in passing offense last year.

This year, the Bulldogs will not sneak up on anybody. Auburn visits Starkville on September 13 and will be looking for payback for last years upset. Additionally, they have a difficult road schedule with visits to Georgia Tech, LSU, Tennessee, Alabama, and Ole Miss.

Though the Bulldogs will remain a solid squad this year, they won't win eight games. This season will likely be a small step backward, and it all relates back to the offense. Until that unit gets better, we may have already seen the best Mississippi State has to offer.

Kentucky will return to its normal status in the SEC this year

For a while last year, it was as if SEC football fans had fallen asleep and awakened in the Bizarro World. Kentucky had just beaten LSU and climbed into the top 10. Of course, the dream didn't come true. The Wildcats lost some close games down the stretch and finished 8-5.

By Kentucky standards, it was an above average year. Now, the Wildcats will attempt to repeat the trick. Unfortunately, I don't see that happening because they lost their most significant weapon from last year.

Quarterback Andre Woodson was the heart, soul, and everything else for Kentucky. He elevated the play of everybody around him, and there doesn't appear to be anyone who can replace him. Curtis Pulley and Mike Hartline will compete for the starting job once practice begins, but most observers agree they are not in Woodson's league.

Kentucky's most important game will likely be on October 11 when they host South Carolina. The winner of that game will likely finish fourth in the SEC Eastern Division. This is about the most Kentucky can hope for this year.

They play a tough road schedule, visiting Louisville, Alabama, Florida, Mississippi State, and Tennessee.

Of course, by mid-October most UK fans will turn their attention to basketball anyway. This is the fate of football programs at schools dominated by basketball (see North Carolina, Indiana, etc.).

Ole Miss will be the surprise team of the SEC in 2008

The most important addition to the Ole Miss Rebels since the end of last season was not a player, but the hiring of Houston Nutt as head coach. Of course, Nutt was the successful coach of Arkansas who left the Razorbacks at the end of last year. It remains a mystery to me why Nutt fell out of favor at Arkansas, but their loss turns into a big gain for Ole Miss.

Though former coach Ed Orgeron did not earn enough wins to save his job, the general consensus among SEC watchers is that he did a good job recruiting talent to Ole Miss. Nutt has a reputation as a master motivator who is an excellent game day coach (ask LSU). He could be the missing ingredient when it comes to making Ole Miss football relevant again.

Ole Miss won't challenge for the SEC Western Division title. LSU and Auburn are both too powerful for that. However, the Rebels should have a bounce back season.

Their first two games may set the tone for the entire season. The Rebs host Memphis then take a trip to Wake Forrest. Even if they only go 1-1 in those games, this could create significant momentum after last season's 3-9 disaster.

Ole Miss should be able to squeak out six wins and go to a lower-tier bowl.

Unfortunately, Vanderbilt will post another losing football season

As a graduate of the University of Tennessee, I know I shouldn't admit this, but I quietly cheer for Vanderbilt's football team. Obviously, I've never cheered for them against Tennessee, but I do have a soft spot for the team. I've lived about one hour from the school for most of my life, and the first college football games I attended as a youth were Vanderbilt games.

Last year, everything seemed aligned for Vanderbilt to earn its first winning season and bowl berth since 1982. They had a lot of experience (especially on the offensive line) and talent. Here on my blog, I was among those who picked Vandy to finally get the monkey off its back, but the Commodores faded down the stretch and finished 5-7.

This year, I am not optimistic. The entire offensive line must be re-worked, and there is a lot of inexperience. Coach Bobby Johnson has been excellent since taking the job there. Even though this year looks like the proverbial rebuilding season, the program is still much better than when he took it over.

Looking at Vandy's schedule, I have a big beef with the school administration. The Commodores play their first game on the road at Miami (Ohio). I don't have a problem with them playing Miami, but I do have a problem in that it is a road game.

A SEC team should never play a Mid-American Conference (MAC) team on the road. Unfortunately for Vandy, the Redhawks are the favorites by many to win the MAC. They would love nothing more than to knock off a SEC team to start their season. So, thanks a lot to the schedule maker for coming up with this stroke of genius.

As for the rest of the schedule, I see Vandy beating Duke and Rice (both games are at home). Other than that, the pickings are pretty slim.

Unfortunately, I'm gonna have to listen to my head instead of my heart. Vandy will go 3-9 at best this season.

Is Steve Spurrier's window of opportunity closing at South Carolina?

When Steve Spurrier took over as head coach at South Carolina, it looked like the program was ready to go to the next level. Lou Holtz had rebuilt the program, and as he stepped down, most thought Spurrier was the right choice to turn the Gamecocks into a national power. However, that hasn't happened.

Until the mid-point of last season, it looked like Spurrier had the team on the brink of something special. In his second season in 2006, the team won eight games, and last year, the team started 6-1 and was ranked in the top 10. At that point everything fell apart. The Gamecocks finished with a 6-6 record and didn't even go to a bowl game.

Spurrier's trademark when he coached Florida was his ability to develop quarterbacks within his offensive system. As he enters his fourth season at Carolina, that position remains in a state of flux. Tommy Beecher and Chris Smelley both struggled during spring practice.

Carolina's early schedule this year is interesting. Most will point to the September 13 match up against Georgia as their first big test, but the opening game against North Carolina State is just as important. While N.C. State is only a middle-tier ACC team, it is critical for the Gamecocks to win that game. Last year left a bad taste in everybody's mouth, and Carolina needs to win early and win big.

Looking at Carolina's schedule in its entirety, this is a team that has 7-5 written all over it. Of course, that would be a slight step forward compared to last year, but with Spurrier as coach, the fans of the program have really high expectations. A 7-5 record would be considered a disappointment to many of them.

Because of this, it will be interesting to see how they treat Spurrier. Will he start feeling heat?

Considering the resources of the school, South Carolina has been the most underachieving program in the SEC since joining the conference in 1992. The team really hasn't made a serious run at the SEC Eastern Division title during this time.

They remain the mystery program of the SEC.

Don't buy the hype regarding Georgia winning the 2008 college football national championship

Almost since the end of the 2007 college football season, a lot of experts have been touting the Georgia Bulldogs as a national championship contender in 2008. The Bulldogs completed last season with a flourish and stomped Hawaii in the Sugar Bowl.

I concede the Bulldogs will enter the 2008 season with a lot of momentum, and they also have the luxury of having most of their starters back from last year. However, they will not win the national championship.

Why? Because their schedule is too tough.

Here it is:

August 30 -- Georgia Southern
September 6 -- Central Michigan
September 13 -- at South Carolina
September 20 -- at Arizona State
September 27 -- Alabama
October 11 -- Tennessee
October 18 -- Vanderbilt
October 25 -- at LSU
November 1 -- Florida (at Jacksonville, Fla.)
November 8 -- at Kentucky
November 15 -- at Auburn
November 29 -- Georgia Tech

That is a brutal schedule, and it is not set up for a national championship run. There are at least two losses on that schedule. I know LSU won the title last year with two losses, but that was the exception rather than the rule. It won't happen again soon.

Six of the Bulldogs games are against teams that have head coaches who have won national championships (South Carolina, Arizona State, Alabama, Tennessee, LSU, and Florida). The Bulldogs picked the wrong year to have LSU come onto their schedule. In consecutive weeks they play at LSU then must play Florida.

Sorry, Georgia fans. Your team may be great next year but you will be lucky to win the SEC championship much less the national title.

Volunteers' 2008 schedule looks as challenging as ever

For better or worse, The Nightly Daily is fixated on the Tennessee Volunteer football program 12 months a year. So, even though the 2007 season just ended, it is not too early to start talking about next season.

A good place to start is the 2008 schedule. It looks to be as difficult as it was in 2007.

Here it is:

Aug. 30 -- UAB
Sept. 6 -- at UCLA
Sept. 20 -- Florida
Sept. 27 -- at Auburn
Oct. 4 -- Northern Illinois
Oct. 11 -- at Georgia
Oct. 18 -- Mississippi State
Oct. 25 -- Alabama
Nov. 1 -- at South Carolina
Nov. 8 -- Wyoming
Nov. 22 -- at Vanderbilt
Nov. 29 -- Kentucky

Traditionally, the Volunteers play one high profile non-conference opponent, and this year, it will be UCLA. We play them on the road, so let's hope that trip goes a little better than our visit to the University of California last season. The Bruins struggled in '07, but a lot of that was due to injuries. Look for a tough game.

Additionally, a trip to Auburn comes on the schedule, replacing Arkansas in the SEC schedule rotation. Another tough road trip will be to Georgia, who will likely be the pre-season favorite to win the SEC Eastern Division. So that is three tough road games right there.

The home schedule features games against Florida and Alabama. Both those teams crushed UT in '07 so hopefully a little payback will be forthcoming. The Vols play a total of seven home games.